Fundamentally Speaking

Palmer Drought Severity Index readings show MI, MN, WI, SD and ND having the most saturated soils as of the end of the year since at least 1960

Percentage of winter wheat planted as a percent of all U.S. wheat seeded, winter wheat yields as a percent of the U.S. all wheat yield and winter wheat output as a percent of total U.S. wheat production have all declined.

U.S. corn feed/residual and export demand in million bushels, and plotted as a percent of that year's production.

U.S. corn feed/residual utilization in the Sep-Nov quarter vs. corn fed that quarter per grain consuming animal unit (GCAU)

Year-to-year change in U.S. corn and soybean planted area in percentage terms from 1981 to 2019.

Average spot corn futures price from 2000-2019 in dollars per bushel, the annual range measuring the price difference from the year's high to the year's low, also in dollars per bushel, vs. a very crude measure of volatility showing the annual range divided by the annual...

Average spot soybean futures price from 2000-2019 in dollars per bushel and the annual range measuring the price difference from the year's high to the year's low, also in dollars per bushel vs. a very crude measure of volatility showing the annual range divided by the annual...

This year is ending on a very positive note with the recent signing of the Phase 1 trade accord with China, a new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement being inked. The stock markets posted their best year on year gains since 2013. This holiday season saw no government shutdown...

Now that the Phase 1 trade accord between the U.S. and China is close to being signed, traders will be looking for increased Chinese purchases, especially soybeans. The graphic shows U.S. soybean sales and shipments in million bushels as of the third week of December on the left...

Corn sales and shipments as of the first week of December have never been lower for the past 30 years

Seasonality of the July-November soybean spread in $/bushel from September 1 to July 1 for all years 1984-2019

Percent change in combined Brazilian-Argentine soybean production from the December to June WASDE report and the percent change in November soybean futures from December 1 to July 1 for that marketing year.

Percent change in U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks from the November to December WASDE reports from 1995 to 2018.

New crop November soybean/December corn ratio the day before Thanksgiving on the right hand axis vs. the change in both corn and soybean acreage from the final planted figure the prior year to the following March planting intentions figure on the left hand axis.

Continuous Minneapolis vs. Chicago wheat futures spread from the time period January 2009 to November 2019.

Scatterplot of the metric tons of corn fed per grain consuming animal unit vs. the average farm price of corn

Ten, twenty and thirty year seasonal of soybean oil's share of soybean crush value basis Central Illinois along with the 2019 values.

Seasonal SX/CZ ratio studies suggest further increases in soybean price relative to corn

Shrinking world vegoil stock-to-use ratios sends U.S. bean oil to new 2019 highs.

Corn does not appear to have any friends as output not seen coming down much from prior projections, exports are abysmal, corn fed per GCAU continues to decline and the end of the ethanol boom. Speaking of food-seed-industrial usage it is not only corn used for fuel alcohol...