Fundamentally Speaking

End of July crop ratings for each of the top 18 corn producing states and the U.S. for this year, last year and then the 1986-2020 average.

Last month's range from high to low for both the December 2020 corn futures and November 2020 soybean futures contracts is among the narrowest in years.

Scatterplot of end of July U.S. corn crop ratings vs. the % USDA August corn yield estimate deviated from the 1986-2019 trend of final yields

New crop U.S. corn and soybean sales for the year starting September 1 in million bushels (mb) and these sales as a percent of the USDA's July WASDE export projection

Soybean crop ratings as of week 29 since 1986 with the yellow box above denoting the percent that soybean yields deviated from the 30-year trend for each season

Scatterplot of week 29 corn ratings vs. the percent the final corn yield deviated from the 30-year trend.

U.S. corn harvested/planted ratio vs. the percent the final U.S. corn yield deviates from the 30-year trend

Unshipped U.S. soybeans as of beginning of July vs. unshipped sales as a percent of July WASDE export projection and the percent beginning of July cumulative soybean exports are above or below that WASDE export estimate.

Matrix of possible corn ending stocks given various harvested/planted ratios and percent deviations from the 2020 trend yield

USDA acreage changes for U.S. corn and soybeans from the March intentions to June acreage report to the final production report figure

Average percent change in corn acreage from the March prospective plantings report to the June acreage figures along with the standard deviation and highest and lowest percent change from 2000 to 2019 for the top 18 producing states and the U.S.

Scatterplot relation with R2 of 53% indicated 53% of variability in KS wheat protein levels explained by PDSI readings.

Percent change in the WASDE U.S. corn total supply and total usage estimates from May to January and then February to October reports vs. the respective change in the average farm price estimate in $/bu for those two time periods also.

If funds start to cover their large short position in corn futures how high could that process drive prices?

Change in planted area for U.S. corn from the March intentions to the June acreage report vs. the November soybean/December corn futures price ratio on April 1 and again on June 1

World stocks-to-use ratio of corn, soybeans and wheat with and without China.

New crop U.S. corn export sales in million bushels as of the final week in May vs. this figure as a percent of the first USDA new crop export projection along with the projected U.S. share of world corn trade.

New crop U.S. soybean export sales in million bushels as of third week in May vs this figure as a percent of the first USDA new crop export projection along with the projected U.S. share of world soybean trade.

Loose relation between the annual percent change in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and the annual percent change in both total U.S. red meat and poultry production and demand

How often the USDA has predicted record US corn production and usage over the past 25 years vs how the USDA prognostications of record output and consumption have worked out