Fundamentally Speaking

One observation is that corn really loves cool temperatures and even in states with good summer rains, one wonders whether the elevated readings capped yield potential.

Comparing lows in December corn to stocks-to-use ratios.

Week 34 rating for U.S. corn and soybeans vs. the percent change in rating from week 25 to week 34 (approximately around the beginning of July to the end of August)

U.S. corn and soybean new crop sales on the books as of third week in August vs. percent of USDA's August export projection

For the global corn situation, note that the coming year's global corn stocks-to-use ratio is pegged at 24.3% which is even lower than this year's 24.5% and would be the tightest ratio since 22.5% in the 2013/14 season.

USDA's August 2021 and final 2020 soybean yield in bushels per acre (bpa) for the U.S. and top 18 soybean growing states vs. percent that this year's soybean yield deviates from the 1999-2020 trend.

USDA's August 2021 and final 2020 corn yield for the U.S. and top 18 corn growing states vs. percent this year's corn yield deviates from the 1999-2020 trend.

Weather woes in almost all major producing regions turns wheat from most bearish to most bullish member of grain and oilseeds complex

2021 crop rating and 1999-2021 average; numbers in yellow boxes box where 2021 rating ranks from 1999-2021 period

Scatterplot showing the week 30 crop ratings for U.S. soybeans vs the percent that the USDA's August soybean yield forecast deviated from the 25-year trend of final yields

Week 30 crop ratings for U.S. corn vs. the percent USDA's August corn yield forecast deviated from the 25-year trend of final yields.

Seasonality of U.S. corn crop ratings from week 23 to week 39

Week 27 (mid-July) crop ratings for the U.S and the top 18 growing states and the 20 year average vs. how 2021 week 27 rating ranks over the past 20 years

U.S. large corn and soybean production states were dry in June 2021, while the U.S. Delta experienced wet conditions.

Change in U.S corn and soybean plantings from March intentions to June acreage report vs. June figures to final crop production report

Total combined corn and soybean area in North and South Dakota in 1000 acres and these figures as a percent of the total U.S. planted acreage of each crop

Highest, lowest, 2020 and average percent change in corn acreage from the March prospective plantings report to the June acreage figures along with the standard deviation of these changes from 2000 to 2020 for the top 18 producing states and the U.S.

Change in planted area for U.S. corn from the March intentions to the June acreage report vs. November soybean/December corn futures price ratio on April 1 and again on June 1

Percent that U.S., foreign and world corn yields deviate from 1990-2020 trend vs. the U.S. corn yield as percent of world and foreign corn yields

U.S. spring wheat ratings as of the middle of June (week 23) and end of July (week 30) vs. the percent that July and final yields deviate from 1986-2020 trend of final yields