Fundamentally Speaking

U.S. export sales and shipments as of the first week in March as a percent of the USDA's March WASDE estimate vs. new crop sales also as of the first week in March as a percent of the USDA Ag Outlook Forum estimates given in late February.

U.S. export sales and shipments as of the first week in March as a percent of the USDA's March WASDE estimate vs. new crop sales also as of the first week in March as a percent of the USDA Ag Outlook Forum estimates given in late February.

U.S. wheat export sales and shipments as of the third week in February as a percentage of the February USDA export projection along with those sales as a percentage of the final export figure vs. the percent change in U.S. wheat exports from the February WASDE projection...

U.S. soybean shipments are the second slowest they've been in 25 years, but politics eventually will dictate what happens going forward.

Percent change in U.S. corn area & percent change in harvested area vs. harvested/planted ratio

U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio in the September WASDE report and then the January WASDE report vs. percent change in March corn futures from September 15 to January 15.

Percent that the 2023, 2024, and 2025 corn yields from the top 18 states and the U.S. deviated from the rolling 25-year trend for that particular season

Grain prices fell for the third year in a row, while the soybean complex eked out small gains on short-lived China hoopla.

2025 soybean yields for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. vs. the percent that this year's yield deviates from the 25-year trend and the percent change vs. the 2024 final yield.

Net change for November soybeans and December corn futures for the month of October for the past 25 years

2024 and 2025 winter wheat yields for the top 18 growing states and the U.S. vs. the percent those yields deviated from the 25-year trend.

Percent that USDA's September 1 corn in all stocks estimate deviated from the average trade estimate and percent change in the USDA's old crop U.S. corn ending stocks estimate from the September to October WASDE reports vs. percent of Sep 1 corn stocks stored on...

10-state objective corn ear population vs. the implied corn ear weight in pounds per ear.

Change in U.S. corn harvested area from June acreage report to September production report vs. percent harvested change from June acreage report to September production report, and the percent harvested area change from the September production report to the final...

Scatterplot of week 36 U.S. corn ratings vs. the percent that the USDA's September yield forecast deviates from the 25-year trend of the September estimates vs. the percent that the USDA's final yield forecast deviates from the 25-year trend of the final estimate's vs. week...

Both spreads in dollars per bushel vs. the September corn/December corn and September soybean/November soybean price ratios.

U.S. corn harvested to planted area ratio for the top 18 growing states and the U.S. with the 2000-2025 average along with the highest and the lowest planted ratio since 2000 along with the USDA's August 2025 estimate vs. how the top 18 states and the U.S. harvested/planted...

Percent that USDA's August 2025 corn and soybean yield projections deviate from the 25-year trend for the top 18 growing states of each crop and the U.S.

This graphic plots the USDA 2025, average and maximum soybean ratings for the period 2000-2025 by week vs. the percent that this year's weekly soybean ratings deviate from the 2000-2025 average and how the maximum rating ever that week deviated from that average.

For the first time since 2018, U.S. corn yield could be above trend -- perhaps significantly so.