Fundamentally Speaking

This week the USDA indicated that 68% of the nation's corn crop was in good or excellent condition, up 1% from the prior week and vs. 51% a year ago.

Using our usual ratings system (we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results), this graph plots the week 27 (second week in July) crop ratings for the top 18 states and the U.S. with the highest and lowest ratings since 2000 on the left-hand axis along with the week 27 2023 and 2024 ratings.

Reported on the right-hand axis is this year's week 27 ranking from the period 2000-2024 with 1 the highest rating and 25 the lowest.

Given the more favorable ratings this year than last, it is no surprise that there are just four states that have lower corn crop ratings than a year ago including CO, TN, TX and most prominently North Carolina, whose current week 27 rating is a massive 372 points below the year ago level as the current NC rating at 404 is the worst since 2000.

On the other hand, many states are seeing their corn crop conditions far above 2023 levels led by MO, which has large jump vs. last year at 222 points with current 774 rating, the third best since 2000.

Nebraska is also having its third best rating as it tops all states at 806.

IL, MI, and PA are also seeing far higher crop ratings than a year ago.

With some of the Eastern Corn Belt states getting some beneficial moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl this past week and the sodden NW Corn Belt able to drop out, we suspect crop ratings this past week also improved.

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