Fundamentally Speaking

This week, USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at a record 53.2 bushels per acre (bpa) which, though above prior estimate of 52.0 bpa and trade guess of 52.6 bpa, it was not entirely surprising as crop conditions throughout most of the key soybean producing regions of the U.S. have been quite good.

This is represented by this chart (similar to what we did with corn earlier this week) which shows the percent of the 25-year trend projection for the top 18 soybean growing states and the U.S. for the USDA's August 2024 soybean yield estimate.

We also report the August 2024 rank from the period 2000-2024 with 1 being the highest and a record yield and 25 being the lowest yield of the past 25 years.

Note that seven of the 18 states are seen having record yields in both the Eastern and Western Corn Belts, which is one less than corn. North Dakota's projected 36.0 bpa yield is the top when measured as a percent of its 2024 trend yield at 5.6% above its 34.1 bpa trend projection and that state's highest soybean yield since 2016 when its record yield was set at 41.5 bpa.

ND is followed by IN at 4.7% above trend and then MO at 3.8% above trend with both states posting record yields.

LA is faring the worst of the top states with its 49.0 bpa yield projection 9.3% below its trend yield of 54.0 bpa, even though this year's yield is a sharp 9 bushels above the year ago level.

NC is also projected to have its eighth worst yield since 2000 at 8.0% below trend while the TN yield is 5.5% below trend with these more southern states not faring as well as those in the Midwest.

Note the U.S. yield of 53.2 is 1.3% better than its 25-year trend projection of 52.5 bpa and one wonders whether current high crop rating of 68% good or excellent may point to a final yield 2-3% above trend, more in the neighborhood of 53.6-54.1 bpa.

Keep in mind the U.S. has not had a record soybean yield since the 51.9 bpa figure posted back in 2016 so we are certainly due.

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