Fundamentally Speaking

Change in the estimated corn stocks from the September WASDE estimate to the September 1 stocks figures and as a percentage change vs. change in the USDA ending corn stocks estimate from that September WASDE projection to the October one

On a macro level we have long noted the buoyant action of the stock market reflects optimism about the future, both in increased economic activity and hopes that a vaccine will soon emerge.

USDA September soybean estimate in bushels per acre (bpa) vs. the bpa change from the August to the September report and then from that September figure to the final USDA report given in January.

U.S. soybean exports in million bushels (mb) already on the books as of the second week in the marketing year starting September 1 vs these sales as a percent of the USDA's Sep WASDE export projection

U.S. corn exports already on the books at the start of marketing year September 1 and these sales as a percent of the USDA's September WASDE export projection.

Growing conditions for Iowa's corn crop last month were quite inhospitable to say the least. The rare "derecho" type storm and extreme drought in many areas of the state leading to widespread deterioration as indicated by the weekly USDA crop progress and condition...

Price action in August for December corn, November soybeans and December Kansas City wheat over the past 25 years

Crop ratings vs. percent deviation from trend yield to graph out a scatterplot study

USDA August soybean yield projection vs. the change from August to September and August to the final report

USDA August corn yield projection vs. the change from August to September and August to the final report

End of July ratings for each of the top 18 soybean producing states and the U.S. for this year, last year and then the 1986-2020 average.

End of July crop ratings for each of the top 18 corn producing states and the U.S. for this year, last year and then the 1986-2020 average.

Last month's range from high to low for both the December 2020 corn futures and November 2020 soybean futures contracts is among the narrowest in years.

Scatterplot of end of July U.S. corn crop ratings vs. the % USDA August corn yield estimate deviated from the 1986-2019 trend of final yields

New crop U.S. corn and soybean sales for the year starting September 1 in million bushels (mb) and these sales as a percent of the USDA's July WASDE export projection

Soybean crop ratings as of week 29 since 1986 with the yellow box above denoting the percent that soybean yields deviated from the 30-year trend for each season

Scatterplot of week 29 corn ratings vs. the percent the final corn yield deviated from the 30-year trend.

U.S. corn harvested/planted ratio vs. the percent the final U.S. corn yield deviates from the 30-year trend

Unshipped U.S. soybeans as of beginning of July vs. unshipped sales as a percent of July WASDE export projection and the percent beginning of July cumulative soybean exports are above or below that WASDE export estimate.

Matrix of possible corn ending stocks given various harvested/planted ratios and percent deviations from the 2020 trend yield