Canada Markets

Record low U.S. oat ending stocks and close to that in Canada for both old and new crop are sure to keep markets on edge and very sensitive to weather risks in the coming months.

If AAFC is wrong on its assumption that Statistics Canada past production estimates are incorrect for canola, then carryover could fall to unreasonably low levels given a negative Feed, Waste and Dockage total is not acceptable.

The soybean market is sure to see increased weather-related volatility in the year ahead following a much-lower-than-expected new-crop ending-stocks estimate.

Funds continue to aggressively sell old-crop corn (regardless of bullish fundamentals for it) as if that corn were facing the more bearish new-crop fundamentals.

With no revision higher to past production estimates, canola stocks remain uncomfortably tight.

China clearly used the tariffs that it had imposed on canola oil and meal imports as a trade advantage, completely dominating the canola seed export market in March.

With other spring wheat area being lost to corn at a greater rate than expected this year, the Minneapolis wheat premium to Chicago is poised to gain.

The Canadian dollar appears to have left a multi-decade low behind in February with a sharp rally off support. Long loonie risk management should now be a concern.

With yet another contract low set in Kansas City wheat and close to it in Chicago, the wheat/corn spread may be the best hope for a rally.

Various funds rushed back into the corn market with the underlying corn fundamentals of exceptional demand not changed, resulting in a $0.49/bushel rally in two weeks.

The canola market is finally acknowledging the tight supply situation that has been months in the making. At least it's early enough to encourage seeded area but is it too late to ration demand?

Starting April 13, the CBOT launched a new hard red spring wheat contract which will trade alongside the Minneapolis MIAX spring wheat contract.

With corn export commitments to date only being exceeded once in the last 25 years, it should have come as no surprise when USDA finally raised their annual export estimate.

The soybean/corn price ratio initially suggested the March Prospective Plantings report likely marked peak corn acres; but a violent reaction to escalating tariff wars between the U.S. and China have reversed that outlook. If soybean acres do fall further, Canadians have a real...

The pleasant surprise that Canada and Mexico were left out of any tariff changes Wednesday provided an unexpected boost for canola, allowing the gap down following the Chinese tariff announcement to be filled.

Soybean oil export commitments to date have only been exceeded twice in history. Both of those times resulted in final exports greater than 3.2 billion pounds compared to the USDA's initial estimate for 2024-25 of 600 million pounds. A closer inspection is certainly justified.

The soybean-corn price ratio is sending a clear signal to expect a switch from soybean acres to corn, but what about after the Prospective Plantings report? And is there a chance for a bullish surprise regardless?

A rushed announcement over the weekend ahead of a Canadian election call indicated the Liberal Government plans to deal with the Chinese tariff dispute by giving themselves an excuse to not deal with it.

The price you pay for record-high values is the anxiety and volatility that inevitably goes with them. That is one situation where technical analysis helped immensely.

The most important underlying corn fundamentals of exceptional demand have not changed, just anxiety over them has. If the political landscape calms, will investors buy back into corn the way they had previously?