Canada Markets

The December 2022 contract reached an all-time high om the continuous December chart during the week of May 9, while has continued to push higher in the following week.

As of week 40, close to 90% of estimated canola supplies have been delivered into licensed facilities, according to current government estimates, while the remaining 12 weeks will test all previous estimates of what is available.

The USDA has forecast global wheat stocks to fall for a third year and by the largest year-over-year drop seen in 10 years. The 2022-23 stocks in the hands of the eight largest exporters are to fall, while global trade is forecast to reach record levels.

The continuous active MGEX hard red spring wheat chart shows a breach of long-term resistance in May 11 trade.

The Canadian dollar broke through support in the week of May 6 while the May 9 low is the lowest trade against the USD since November 2020.

Statistics Canada released its March 31 grain stocks estimates on May 6. Stocks of eastern row crops are set to grow year over year, while prairie stocks remain tight.

Saskatchewan's first Crop Report for 2022 shows a wide range of conditions and progress across the province.

This study focuses in on miscellaneous trade data reported by Statistics Canada for the month of March.

December spring wheat continues to hold above its 20-day moving average, while the Dec/March spread remains inverted, something not seen in early May since 2006.

Week 38 demand for cars for shipping grain was seen at the highest in 18 weeks, while the railways spotted 98% of the cars wanted during the week, their best performance this crop year.

The spring wheat/hard red winter wheat spread may be viewed as a proxy for the demand for high protein milling wheat. While concerns exist for both crops in North America, recent moves have favored the HRS crop.

While the November canola chart continues to reach fresh contract highs, the new-crop Nov/Jan futures spread continues to weaken.

Statistics Canada's official seeded acre estimates are plugged into AAFC'S supply and demand tables, which provides a glimpse of how demand forecasts will be revised.

Statistics Canada's first official forecast for 2022-23 shows producers paring acres of canola and barley, while planting more wheat and durum.

Canada's canola crush volume rose in March, the first month-over-month increase seen in five months for the largest crush achieved in four months.

Ahead of next week's Statistics Canada acreage estimates, new-crop canola basis has remained unchanged while an all-time high has been reached on the continuous November contract.

AAFC's April supply and demand estimates included a lower revision for Canada's barley exports due to waning demand from China, while the domestic feed use forecast has been revised higher by the same amount.

Despite the sharp drop in prairie production in 2021, elevator grain stocks are down only modestly from a year ago and the five-year average, while terminal stocks are down by a greater amount.

Ukraine is forecast to supply 17% of global exports of barley in 2021-22 although challenges faced will affect the country's potential over the year ahead.

The pace of canola demand remains ahead of the steady pace needed to reach current demand estimates released by AAFC. Demand will soon need to slow considerably, or Statistics Canada may have to find more stocks when it reports March 31 stocks in May.