Canada Markets

The continuous November weekly chart has shown recent consolidation, struggling at $500/metric ton, similar to the pattern of trade shown one year ago.

Trade issues are at the top of Canada's ag challenges as we enter 2020. Meanwhile, China's Meng Wanzhou extradition trial starts on Jan. 20 with some experts indicating it could take years to resolve.

Canadian wheat exports were light in week 23 at 100,500 metric tons, while the current pace is falling well short of meeting current government forecasts.

Barley prices remain firm due to the logistical challenges on the Prairies tied to bitter cold weather. The Dec. 31 stocks report will be of interest for barley market watchers.

Spring wheat has struggled to keep pace with soft red winter this week, while the HRS/HRW spreads, both cash and futures, have been weakening since September and point to waning demand for protein.

March oats have rallied 30 cents/bushel or 10.6% from the recent Dec. 26 low to Tuesday's close, leading the move across the grains.

The National Bulk Handling Corporation in India revised lower their estimates for summer or kharif pulse production in that country, placing a greater focus on rabi or winter production.

March canola closed higher for the fifth week in the past six weeks, ending above retracement resistance, with the nearby October high the next target.

The canola cash market shows signs of strength in early 2020, both in the country and on the West Coast.

Canada's November soybean exports were the highest volume shipped in any month of 2019, while the percentage of the total volume shipped to China has fallen to 0.2%. Canada's diversified shipments are key in the event of a U.S.-China trade deal.

Statistics Canada merchandise trade report for November points to an increase in ag-related trade, while pointing to soybean movement to Europe in November. Here we look at trade data for miscellaneous crops and products.

The demand for hopper cars wanted for loading on the Prairies is up year over year, while close to the three-year average. The effects of the CN strike continue to show, with the largest year-over-year unfulfilled demand seen for the Port of Prince Rupert.

Spring wheat futures led the wheat complex lower on Friday, perhaps bringing to an end a run higher that began in late November.

The Canadian dollar surged higher in the month of December, which is not characteristic for the CAD/USD in this particular month. A downward-sloping trend line was broken on the long-term monthly chart, while the next upside target may be a 50% retracement line near $0.78...

In the fourth and last look at long-term trends in canola yields, we utilized the 10-, 20- and 30-year linear trends to project forward to 2020.

Excel has been used to forecast Canada's national average soybean yield based on the 10-, 20- and 30-year historical trends. The results led to models with a low coefficient of determination or R-squared value.

Linear trends are created with Excel to create the 10-year, 20-year and 30-year trend in Canadian spring wheat yields as an indication of the potential for the crop year ahead.

We look at the 10-, 20- and 30-year trend in Canadian corn yields as an indication of the potential for the crop year ahead.

Producer deliveries as of week 19 are viewed at a record pace and well above average.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada updated Canada's supply and demand tables this month with Statistics Canada production estimates. While overall stocks of principal field crops will remain close to unchanged from the previous year, some crops will face a major swing.