Canada Markets

Over the first six weeks of the crop year, the pace of canola movement has been slow with exports well behind the forecast pace.

Oat futures have reached an all-time high on the continuous active chart as North American supplies are shrinking.

While Statistics Canada pared their forecast for the country's canola production in 2021 by close to 2 mmt, cash basis showed little change.

The Sept. 14 Statistics Canada production estimates show further crop deterioration to the Prairie crop over the month of August, which was widely expected. The row crop potential in eastern provinces resulted in an upward revision in both corn and soybean production this...

Statistics Canada's all-wheat stocks as of July 31 at 5.7 mmt was one of the bearish features weighing on North American wheat futures last week. Statistics Canada data shows feed demand for wheat falling by 66% year-over-year in the April through July period.

This study compares Saskatchewan Agriculture's first yield estimate for the season against Statistics Canada's July model-based results. As well, we compare the province's first estimate released in the fall to Statistics Canada's final estimate over the past five years.

Statistics Canada's July 31 stocks estimates will have a significant impact on crop year supplies available for the year ahead.

The November canola is nearing a test of key chart support, while weekly CFTC data has showed noncommercial traders increasing its bullish net-long position in canola for a fifth straight week.

Each month we look at Statistics Canada's Merchandise trade report as it relates to the movement of various agriculture crops and products.

An estimated 36% of the province's crop has been harvested, with another 30% swathed or ready to straight combine. A warm dry stretch will lead to rapid progress.

The Canadian Canola Board Margin Index, based on movements of soybean oil, soymeal and canola futures along with the Canadian dollar is in negative territory, down roughly $100/mt during the past month and roughly $100/mt over the past year.

While final Statistics Canada yield estimates are often higher than the Alberta government's final dryland yield estimate, there is a wide gap between Statistics Canada's July model results and the latest estimates from the province.

Statistics Canada's model-based production estimates released on Aug. 30 point to a sharply lower crop size, as expected.

AAFC estimates show a sharp drop in barley production for 2021, while more alarming is an even greater drop in crop year supplies when the record low 2020-21 stocks are added to the mix.

AAFC's August supply and demand tables were released to include sharply lower production across Canada's principal field crops, lower exports and tightening stocks for 2021-22.

December spring wheat futures are trading mostly sideways, in search of supportive news. Statistics Canada's production estimates, due for release on Aug. 30, could be just what is needed.

Statistics Canada reported the July canola crush at 816,993 mt, down only slightly from the previous month despite tightening stocks. This caps off a record crush achieved for the 2020-21 crop year.

The demand for empty hoppers for grain shipping continues to slide lower on the Prairies, despite last week's estimates showing the harvest ahead of normal.

Grain stocks in Vancouver increased modestly in week 1 but are reported below last year and the three-year average volume. While terminal unloads increased in week 1, along with exports, producer deliveries into primary elevators slowed.

The Saskatchewan government has estimated 20% of the province's crop is in the bin, well ahead of average.