Canada Markets

: The Canadian dollar reached a 2020 low and its weakest trade since October on Wednesday. Investor sentiment has been waning over past weeks and could soon turn net-short Canadian dollar futures for the first time since mid-2019.

We look at how Saskatchewan Agriculture's return over variable costs changes for selected crops on the dark brown soil zone when we compare the 80th percentile target yields with the reported average yield by soil zone.

The January canola crush remained above average and ahead of the steady pace needed to reach current AAFC forecast for the year. Pressure on crush margins, along with Canada's transportation issues, may slow activity in the last half of the crop year.

Country stocks of grain have increased for the fourth straight week, while CN continues to cancel cars due to the ongoing blockades, which have spread to CP Rail at the end of the week. Stocks account for 90.4% of estimated working capacity with country space tight.

The daily May canola futures have formed a bullish flag pattern although Wednesday's trade tested the lower bounds of this pattern. Commercial traders are taking a cautious approach, with the May-over-July spread showing signs of strength while viewed as a neutral signal.

The Indian government's crop estimates point to a record foodgrain crop for 2019-20. This includes a well-above average pulse crop.

Canada's wheat export potential for 2019-20 continues to be trimmed in government forecasts while the historical pace of movement would indicate further cuts may be expected.

Daily rail data points to a decline in loads on wheels, an increase in idle cars and a growing number of cancelled cars, while a large number of grain vessels wait on the West Coast. The federal government seems content to watch from the sidelines.

Cash barley prices in Lethbridge are sliding lower with more moderate weather and bearish stocks estimates reported by Statistics Canada. Cash prices remain well above historical levels based on current carry-out projections.

The USDA estimated global production and global use of canola to be higher in this month's data release, with use growing faster than production. Estimated stocks for 2019-20 are the lowest seen in three years while the production side of the equation can be questioned.

This study looks at the relationship between new-crop canola futures and new-crop spring wheat futures early in the calendar year, along with the percent change in canola acres seeded the following spring.

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 26 statistics, covering the first half of the 2019-20 crop year, are used to project crop year exports based on the historical seasonal tendencies of Canada's export flow.

December 2020 spring wheat futures have sold off along with other grain contracts, while trading sideways after uncovering support.

Here we look at Statistics Canada's Dec. 31 grain stocks estimates and what they mean for the supply-demand balance over the remainder of the crop year.

The USDA's attache report on Canada, the Grain and Feed Update, is viewed as increasingly bearish for Canada's wheat market.

Monday's March canola low bounced from trendline support on the continuous active chart, while closing above $450/mt. Over the past five years, the Dec. 31 stocks report has had only a modest effect on the nearby March future.

Canada has been exporting wheat to Australia since May and that country indicates this will continue.

December exports through licensed facilities fell from the previous month, as well as the same month in 2018, while cumulative licensed volumes are down more than 3 million tons from 2018-19 over the first five months of the crop year. The historical pace of movement could be...

Spring wheat for March delivery traded above the previous session's high in each of the past two sessions but struggled to sustain gains. Spring wheat prices are searching for chart support, while there is likely commercial and noncommercial selling weighing on prices.

Bulk dry pea exports through licensed facilities remain well ahead of 2018-19, but on par with the average pace. The pace of movement seen over the past two years could result in higher-than-forecast exports for 2019-20.