Fundamentally Speaking

The first USDA official 2024 U.S. corn production estimate will be released August 12 and with favorable weather seen so far in July, that should have resulted in a relatively stress-free pollination period for corn.

This would seem to solidify ideas that USDA should at least maintain their current record yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre (bpa) and perhaps their first field and survey-based projection could be even higher.

Keep in mind we still have a way to go before the crop is harvested and August (and even September) weather will also impact corn yield potential so final national and state figures could change from what the government estimates next month.

Along these lines this graphic shows the average, minimum and maximum percent change in corn yields for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. between the August crop report and the final production figures given in January for the period 2000-2023.

That is plotted on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis is the standard deviation of these 24 August to January percent yield revisions.

We start off with those states that tend to see a higher yield figure in January than in the initial August report.

In that regard, NC has the highest positive percent change of 3.2%, followed up by KY at up 2.6% and TN at up 2.1%.

The largest increase of any of the states in the period 2000-2023 was in ND up 22% in the drought year of 2012.

States that tend to see a lower yield figure in January than in the initial August report were led by Texas averaging a 2.8% yield decline between the August and January reports, followed up by PA down 1.3%, and CO and OH down 1.1%

The largest decrease of any of the states in the period 2000-2023 was in PA down 24.4% back in 2002.

The standard deviation, which is a measure of variability, shows that yield changes between August and January are most variable for the most northern of the 18 states in North Dakota at 9.6% and then the most southern in Texas at 9.0%.

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