Fundamentally Speaking

A doubling of the Argentine crop, still record Brazilian exports despite a smaller crop this season, and a slow pace of Chinese buying are some of the reasons U.S. overseas sales of soybeans this year are seen at 1.70 billion bushels (bb).

This figure could be reduced in subsequent WASDE reports to perhaps come in lower than the 1.683 bb figure seen in the 2019/20 season at the height of the trade wars with China which would be the lowest U.S. export figure since 2012.

The USDA feels more optimistic about the prospects of U.S. export sales this year as its current 2024/25 projection of 1,850 bb is 150 million bushels (mb) higher but the slow new crop sales pace so far casts doubt on that figure.

Similar to what we did with corn in an earlier piece, this chart shows both old crop soybean sales and shipments on the left-hand axis as a percent of the August old crop export estimate while new crop sales as a percent of the August new crop export estimate is plotted on the right-hand axis, both as of the third week in August.

Usually with just two weeks left in the marketing year, cumulative soybean sales have exceeded the August old crop WASDE projection but this year clocks in at 99.2% which, other than last year's 99.0%, is the second lowest figure since at least 2000.

Of the 1.70 bb expected to be sold in the 2023/24 season, only 94.0% have shipped which is the lowest of the past 25 seasons and perhaps suggests the final export figure this season could be pared.

As for the upcoming season beginning September 1, just 277.1 mb have been sold, the second lowest figure since the 2008/09 marketing year.

That represents just 15.0% of the current USDA 1.850 bb projection which is the second lowest percent since 2005, again next to the 2019/20 season.

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