Fundamentally Speaking

Actual and the long-term projected USDA all wheat yields as contained in the initial release of their Long-Term Agricultural Projections in bushels per acre (bpa) along with the 30-year trend, the 20-year trend and the ten-year trend.

actual and the long-term projected USDA soybean yields in bushels per acre (bpa) along with the 30-year trend, the 20-year trend and the ten-year trend.

Actual and projected USDA yields in blue along with the 30-year trend in orange, the 20-year trend in green and the 10-year trend in red.

Change in both corn production and feed in million bushels from the Dec to Jan WASDE report along with the implied Sep-Nov feed use as a percent of the January feed/residual usage.

Combined Brazilian and Argentine corn and soybean exports over the years and this total as a percent of U.S. exports.

U.S. soybean meal export sales as of mid-November and those sales as a percent of the November WASDE estimate vs. the change in sales from the November WASDE projection to the final figures in 1000 metric tons.

With carryout and stock to use ratio the highest in ten years, the fact that January soybeans were $1.75 higher than year ago levels seems incongruous.

November soybean/December corn ratio the day before Thanksgiving vs. the percent change in both corn and soybean acreage from the final acreage figures to the following planting intention figures furnished by the USDA at the end of March.

Brazilian soybean yields in metric tons per hectare since 1975 along with the percent that each year's yield deviated from the 40-year trend.

Weighted average of the total number of soybeans within an 18 square foot area for the 11 objective states that the USDA compiles soybean pod data for, the 11 state weighted implied soybean weight in grams per pod and the weighted 11 objective state average yield.

USDA yield projections in the November crop production report for the U.S. and 18 top states in terms of actual yield, percent of trend and rank of where 2016 yield is using range from 2009-2016.

USDA soybean yield estimates for the top producing states and the U.S. in bushels per acre, that yield as a percent of the 1989-2015 trend and where that 2016 yield ranks for each state in the 1989-2015 range.

The world sobyean oil stocks to use ratio is at its lowest level in 40 years.

There is virtually no relation between USDA's first winter wheat crop rating and how even the May yield deviates from trend with the correlation actually -0.09.

Seasonality charts point to falling soybean oil percent of crush value

History of U.S. soybean yield changes where this year the USDA increased its yield projection from the August to the September report and then again from the September to the October report.

History of U.S. corn yield changes from the October to November report in years in which USDA has already lowered yield from Aug to Sep report and again from Sep to Oct report.

U.S. wheat acreage and trend yields from 1960-2015