Fundamentally Speaking

The world stocks-to-use ratio (not including China) for the 2018/19 season is projected at 20.0%, which is the lowest level since the 17.5% ratio in the 2007/08 marketing year, the season wheat prices ran to record highs by far.

Global corn stocks-to-use ratio is now the lowest ever at 13.97%, taking out the previous low of 14.19% seen back in the 2010/11 marketing year

National spring wheat crop ratings as of July 1 vs. percent that the July wheat yield estimate deviates from the 1989-2017 trend of the final spring wheat yield.

USDA change in corn and soybean yields from June to July WASDE report in bpa vs. crop conditions as of the first week of July

Past history of USDA corn yield changes from the June to the July WASDE report

Correlation between national crop conditions each week of the growing season vs the percent the final U.S. corn yield deviated from the 1986-2017 trend.

Amount of sales on the books of U.S. wheat as of the start of the marketing year June 1st

Palmer Drought Severity Index for the top 21 states as of the end of May from the period 1960 to 2018

Initial USDA weekly crop ratings for soybeans compared to the percent that final U.S. soybean yield deviated from the 30-year trend.

New crop U.S. soybean export sales as of the third week in May.

First corn crop rating of year at 79% good or excellent is one of highest ever

Weighted corn planting progress of the eight states as of May 15th vs. the percent deviation of the weighted eight state trend yield

USDA change in ending stocks from the first WASDE projection given in May to final

Change in U.S. soybean ending stocks from the first WASDE report given in May to the final

Change in U.S. corn ending stocks from the first WASDE report given in May to the final one for each marketing year furnished in November

USDA continues to report slow seedings of the spring wheat, raising the possibility that some intended spring wheat acreage will not get seeded to that crop.

After the annual Wheat Quality Council tour of Kansas last week, it is possible that the 2018 crop year will be the lowest wheat crop since 1989.

Percent change in ending stocks for the main U.S. crops (corn, soybeans and wheat) from the February Ag Outlook Forum to the first new crop balance sheet projections that are given in the USDA's May WASDE report.