DTN Oil Update
Oil Rises on Near-Term Tightness, But Outlooks Cap Gains
VIENNA (DTN) -- Oil futures rose Friday morning after slipping 2% on Thursday as the International Energy Agency flagged a tighter-than-expected crude oil market in the near term in their latest monthly oil market report published this morning. At the same time, the agency sees an even higher risk of oversupply later in the year, capping gains.
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NYMEX-traded WTI for August was up $0.70 barrel (bbl) to trade near $67.27 bbl, and ICE Brent for September delivery gained $0.68 bbl to $69.32 bbl.
August RBOB gasoline futures rose $0.0078 to $2.1602 gallon, and the front-month ULSD futures contract added $0.0341 to trade near $2.4176 gallon.
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.153 points to 97.475.
IEA pointed to strong refining margins and a steep backwardation in the front end of crude oil futures forward curves as evidence of a currently tighter-than-expected market. So far, increased summer demand for transportation fuels and crude for direct burning has outweighed the effect of increased supplies from OPEC+.
At the same time, IEA saw surging global oil stocks in May and reported that preliminary data suggest the same for June, adding to oversupply concerns. However, the surge in crude inventories was mostly concentrated in China, where a new energy security policy is incentivizing stock builds.
The newest report contained yet another downward revision to global oil demand growth forecasts. The agency now estimates 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) of global demand growth this year and 720,000 bpd in 2026. Given OPEC's strategic shift and growing non-OPEC output, IEA estimates global supply to grow by 2.1 million bpd in 2025, leading to a global surplus of 700,000 bpd this year.