Fundamentally Speaking

Average spot corn futures price from 2000-2019 in dollars per bushel, the annual range measuring the price difference from the year's high to the year's low, also in dollars per bushel, vs. a very crude measure of volatility showing the annual range divided by the annual...

Average spot soybean futures price from 2000-2019 in dollars per bushel and the annual range measuring the price difference from the year's high to the year's low, also in dollars per bushel vs. a very crude measure of volatility showing the annual range divided by the annual...

This year is ending on a very positive note with the recent signing of the Phase 1 trade accord with China, a new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement being inked. The stock markets posted their best year on year gains since 2013. This holiday season saw no government shutdown...

Now that the Phase 1 trade accord between the U.S. and China is close to being signed, traders will be looking for increased Chinese purchases, especially soybeans. The graphic shows U.S. soybean sales and shipments in million bushels as of the third week of December on the left...

Corn sales and shipments as of the first week of December have never been lower for the past 30 years

Seasonality of the July-November soybean spread in $/bushel from September 1 to July 1 for all years 1984-2019

Percent change in combined Brazilian-Argentine soybean production from the December to June WASDE report and the percent change in November soybean futures from December 1 to July 1 for that marketing year.

Percent change in U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks from the November to December WASDE reports from 1995 to 2018.

New crop November soybean/December corn ratio the day before Thanksgiving on the right hand axis vs. the change in both corn and soybean acreage from the final planted figure the prior year to the following March planting intentions figure on the left hand axis.

Continuous Minneapolis vs. Chicago wheat futures spread from the time period January 2009 to November 2019.

Scatterplot of the metric tons of corn fed per grain consuming animal unit vs. the average farm price of corn

Ten, twenty and thirty year seasonal of soybean oil's share of soybean crush value basis Central Illinois along with the 2019 values.

Seasonal SX/CZ ratio studies suggest further increases in soybean price relative to corn

Shrinking world vegoil stock-to-use ratios sends U.S. bean oil to new 2019 highs.

Corn does not appear to have any friends as output not seen coming down much from prior projections, exports are abysmal, corn fed per GCAU continues to decline and the end of the ethanol boom. Speaking of food-seed-industrial usage it is not only corn used for fuel alcohol...

Percent change in USDA's U.S. corn yield estimate from the October to the January crop production reports vs. percent of the U.S. corn crop harvested by week 44 and the percent of the U.S. corn crop planted by May 20.

First fall, last fall and first spring USDA rating of U.S. winter wheat conditions vs. the percent that the USDA's May yield estimate deviates from the 30 year trend of the USDA's final winter wheat estimate

Amount of U.S. soybeans shipped and sold as of the second week of October as a percentage of USDA's October WASDE export projection vs. change in U.S. soybean exports from that WASDE forecast to the actual final figure for that marketing year

Scatterplot of week 41 U.S. corn crop conditions vs the percent that yields deviated from the 35-year trend

Amount of U.S. corn shipped and sold as of the second week of October as a percentage of the USDA's October WASDE export projection vs. change in U.S. corn exports from that WASDE forecast to the end of the marketing year