Fundamentally Speaking

This graphic plots the USDA 2025, average and maximum soybean ratings for the period 2000-2025 by week vs. the percent that this year's weekly soybean ratings deviate from the 2000-2025 average and how the maximum rating ever that week deviated from that average.

For the first time since 2018, U.S. corn yield could be above trend -- perhaps significantly so.

USDA week 29 national soybean condition report for the 2025, 2024 and 2000-2025 average rating for the U.S. and top 18 states vs. the percent that the week 29 rating this year deviates from the 2000-2025 average.

USDA's week 28 (around the middle of July) national corn condition for the period 1987-2025 vs. percent that the week 28 ratings deviate from the 1987-2024 trend yield using both the August and final U.S. yield projections.

2025, 2024 and 2000-2025 average crop ratings for week 28 vs. the percent that the week 28 rating this year deviates from the 2000-2025 average.

Soybean oil's percent contribution of the combined soybean crush value over the past 30 years along with the average and plus and minus one and two standard deviation lines.

Average percent change in corn acreage from the March prospective plantings report to the June acreage figures for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. vs. the highest and lowest percent change from 2000 to 2024.

Price change in the July-December corn spread from January 1 to June 1 vs. the change in the old crop corn stocks-to-use ratio from January to the June WASDE report and the change from last June to this year's June figure.

Second U.S. corn rating of each year from 2000 to 2025 vs. percentage of the U.S. corn area in some form of drought D1-D4 as recorded in the U.S. Drought monitor site.

Volume of U.S. soybeans sold and shipped as a percentage of the USDA May' WASDE export projection and the amount of U.S. soybeans shipped to sold vs. the amount of U.S. soybeans sold to unknown destinations as a percentage of the total of both known and unknown...

Volume of U.S. corn sold and shipped as a percentage of the USDA May WASDE export projection and the amount of U.S. corn shipped to sold vs. the amount of U.S. corn sold to unknown destinations as a percentage of the total of both known and unknown destinations.

Change in the U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio from the first WASDE report of the year given in May to the one a year later, the dollar per bushel change in the spot corn price as of May 15 vs. the value a year earlier.

New crop U.S. wheat exports as of the second week of May vs. those sales as a percent of the USDA's first export projection given in the May WASDE report.

USDA's May WASDE old crop and first new crop stocks-to-use ratios for U.S. corn and soybeans.

A look at the first U.S. oat crop ratings for 2025 show them down quite a bit from 2024, a season that ended with record high yields.

A look at the SX/CZ ratio -- in light of current events -- suggests corn acreage will increase quite a bit from the intentions report, at the expense of soybean acres.

Stocks-to-use ratios for both corn and soybeans given at the USDA Ag Outlook session vs. the ones furnished in the May WASDE report.

U.S. corn export sales and shipments in mb as of the third week of April vs. those figures as a percent of the USDA's April WASDE estimates.

State yields of the top 18 soybean producing states as a percentage of the U.S. yield looking at the five, ten and then 25-year averages vs. the percent of each state's soybean harvested area over the past 25 years.

The last fall crop conditions for the U.S. winter wheat crop and the first spring ratings vs. the percent that that the final U.S. winter wheat yield estimate deviates from the 2000-2024 trend and the final harvested to planted acreage ratio.