Fundamentally Speaking

New Crop US Soybean Sales Off to Worse Start in at Least 20 Years

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst
This chart shows total new-crop soybean sales as of the third week of June in million bushels on the left-hand axis. The right-hand axis shows those sales as a percent of USDA's June WASDE export projection. The figures in the yellow rectangles are the percent change in final U.S. soybean export sales for that marketing year compared to the June WASDE report 16 months earlier. (Chart by Joel Karlin)
This chart shows total new-crop soybean sales as of the third week of June in million bushels on the left-hand axis. The right-hand axis shows those sales as a percent of USDA's June WASDE export projection. The figures in the yellow rectangles are the percent change in final U.S. soybean export sales for that marketing year compared to the June WASDE report 16 months earlier. (Chart by Joel Karlin)

Another year of record combined South American soybean production led by a doubling of the Argentine crop and output forecast another 17 million metric tons (mmt) higher for the 2024-25 year, a strongly valued U.S. dollar and diminished Chinese demand have resulted in this year's forecasted U.S. soybean exports at 1.700 billion bushels (bb). This is the second lowest figure since the 2013-14 season and may soon be the lowest if subsequent WASDE reports reduce this year's exports even more to below the 1.683 bb sold in the 2019-20 season.

Meanwhile, casting doubt on the USDA forecast of exports next year at 1.825 bb, up 7.4% from this year's total, sales for the upcoming marketing year are already very depressed relative to recent years. This chart shows total new-crop soybean sales as of the third week of June in million bushels compared to USDA's June WASDE export projection. The figures in the yellow rectangles are the percent change in final U.S. soybean export sales for that marketing year compared to the June WASDE report 16 months earlier.

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Starting with that, the June 2023 WASDE report pegged the 2023-24 U.S. soybean export sales at 1.975 bb and their current 2023-24 projection at 1.70 bb is 13.9% below that and could be lowered if this year's overseas sales projection is reduced even more.

As for new crop, current sales for the 2024-25 season on the books stand at a mere 45 million bushels (mb) which is the lowest figure for the third week of June since 2002. That is just 2.5% of the 1.825 bb of exports the USDA is projecting for the upcoming marketing year starting Sept. 1, the lowest in that regard since the 2000-01 season.

There have been some years where a slow start to the export season picks up later in the year, perhaps for the rest of 2024 that could be the case if the U.S. soybean crop seems imperiled or maybe in 2025 if early season prospects for next year's South American crop start off in an unfavorable manner. Still, similar to this year, it appears the early season USDA export projection looks overstated at this point in the game.

Joel Karlin, Ocean State Research

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This chart shows total new-crop soybean sales as of the third week of June in million bushels on the left-hand axis. The right-hand axis shows those sales as a percent of USDA's June WASDE export projection. The figures in the yellow rectangles are the percent change in final U.S. soybean export sales for that marketing year compared to the June WASDE report 16 months earlier. (Chart by Joel Karlin) 
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