Fundamentally Speaking

This week, USDA pegged U.S. corn yield at a record 183.1 bushels per acre (bpa) which though above the prior estimate of 181 bpa and trade estimate of 182.5, it is not entirely surprising as crop conditions throughout most of the key corn producing regions of the U.S. have been quite good.

This is represented by this chart which shows the percent of the 25-year trend projection for the top 18 corn growing states and the U.S. for USDA's August 2024 corn yield estimate.

We also report the August 2024 rank from the period 2000-2024 with 1 being the highest and a record yield and 25 being the lowest yield of the past 25 years.

Note that eight of the 18 states are seen having record yields in both the Eastern and Western Corn Belts.

Missouri's projected 181 bpa yield is the top when measured as a percent of its 2024 trend yield at 11.7% above its 162.1 bpa trend projection, though its record yield was in 2014 at 186 bpa.

MO is followed by IL at 8.8% above trend and then IN at 8.1% above trend with both states posting record yields.

NC fared the worst of the top states with its 100 bpa yield projection 24.2% below its trend yield of 132.0 bpa, its lowest yield since 2011 and its fifth worst since 2000.

TX is also projected to have its fifth worst yield since 2000 while the PA yield is 15.8% below trend.

Note the U.S. yield of 183.1 is 1.4% better than its 25-year trend projection of 180.6 bpa and one wonders whether the current high crop rating of 67% good or excellent may point to a final yield 2 or 3% above trend, more in the neighborhood of 184-186 bpa.

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