Todd Hultman

DTN Lead Analyst

Todd Hultman is a DTN grain market analyst, and has worked in the commodity futures industry since 1985.

 

Todd began his career as a broker with Delta Futures Group in Omaha, where he relied on DTN's news and market quotes. In 1997, he left the brokerage business with a desire to spend more time researching the futures markets and educating others. The move led to the creation of an online educational resource for futures traders. That same strong interest to research and teach brought a Todd to DTN where he enjoys commenting on the grain markets. Todd is a 1981 graduate of the University of Nebraska at Omaha and has lived in the Omaha area for most of his life.

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  • Soybean meal prices on China's Dalian exchange have weakened considerably since late September, corresponding to a reduction in this fall's purchases from China. (DTN ProphetX chart by Todd Hultman)

    Todd's Take

    The 2021-22 season started with high hopes for soybean export sales, but something has weakened China's demand, and the timing couldn't be worse for the U.S.

  • Two things stand out about noncommercial positions in this Chicago wheat chart. First, specs aren't abnormally bullish. Most of the price gain has come from legitimate demand. Secondly, 95,406 contracts short in this market is a huge mistake -- specs are in serious trouble. (DTN ProphetX chart by Todd Hultman)

    Todd's Take

    End users are having an increasingly difficult time securing wheat this fall. Thanks to a large spec position on the wrong side of the market, the troubles may only be just beginning.

  • The blue line on the chart above shows the cost of a Panamax hauling grain from the U.S. Gulf to northern China more than doubled in 2021 as a renewal of demand outpaced the ability of many companies to get back to work. In mid-November, shipping costs are finally starting to ease, a welcome sign of normalization. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Todd's Take

    The cost of shipping grain overseas got a lot more expensive after coronavirus disrupted shipping and the functioning of ports. Here in mid-November, costs are finally starting to ease.

  • This chart a shows a theoretical profit of $11.38 per bushel from owning cash corn from Nov. 30 to May 31 the past 28 years. This may appear to contradict Elaine Kub's corn storage study from Nov. 3, but the lessons of both studies are best when combined. (DTN ProphetX chart by Todd Hultman)

    Todd's Take

    On Nov. 3, DTN Contributing Analyst Elaine Kub presented an excellent study on the history of corn storage decisions; because it's such an important topic, I have a few more things to add.

  • USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Tuesday, Nov. 9. (USDA logo)

    USDA Reports Preview

    On Tuesday, Nov. 9, USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

  • The Federal Reserve signals it may soon cut back on bond purchases. (Willard, Getty Images)

    Inside the Market

    Overall, grain prices were largely sheltered as financial and other commodity markets remained stable. But, that could change in the coming months.

  • On Oct. 27, December corn closed back above its 100-day average for the first time since Aug. 18, 2021. Shipping disruptions from Hurricane Ida and 15.0 billion bushels of new supplies have not been enough to hold corn prices down. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Todd's Take

    Hurricane Ida and a 15.0-billion-bushel harvest haven't been strong enough to break corn prices lower. What, if anything, will?

  • USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Tuesday, Oct. 12. (USDA logo)

    USDA Reports Preview

    On Tuesday, Oct. 12, USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

  • (Meredith Bernard)

    Inside the Market

    October is typically the time of year when corn and soybean prices are near their lows for the season, but this year's declines have been mild to date.

  • December Chicago wheat dipped below its 100-day average several times in 2021, but each time end-user buying showed up as commercial positions to support prices. (DTN ProphetX chart by Todd Hultman)

    Todd's Take

    Futures traders' favorite wheat had its ups and downs in 2021, but don't let the dips fool you. Chicago wheat prices have firm support that should continue into early 2022.

  • December soybean meal prices fell 22% from their high on May 12 and have been the weaker of the two soy products. But soybean supplies remain tight and support for meal should be near. (DTN ProphetX chart by Todd Hultman)

    Todd's Take

    Throughout 2021, soybean meal has been the weaker performing of the two soy products. Soybean supplies remain tight and meal prices should be close to finding support.

  • USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday, Sept. 10. (USDA logo)

    USDA Reports Preview

    On Friday, Sept. 10, USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.