Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

More From This Author

  • The December-to-May futures spread available to be locked in on Nov. 1 of any given year (for hedged bushels in storage) has averaged a fairly stable 19 cents over the past six years. Unhedged bushels also tend to go up in value over that time, but in a less stable pattern. (DTN chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    In recent years, there have been reliable opportunities to lock in futures spreads and earn "carry" for storing grain six months past harvest. The upward trend of flat prices from harvest to springtime is less reliable.

  • Your decision to sell or store soybeans should not be affected by Market Facilitation Program payments. (Photo by Chris Clayton)

    Kub's Den

    As Market Facilitation Payments keep rolling out to 2018's soybean producers, does that extra cash flow lubricate farmer selling and the physical movement of old-crop beans? Or perhaps it...

  • The last time the USDA released official economic projections for the current corn marketing year, it estimated 1.781 billion bushels of corn ending stocks, accounting for an 11.8 percent stocks-to-use ratio.

    Kub's Den

    Stable corn prices stuck in a sideways trading range may not be very exciting for producers, but they are favorable for end users of various varieties, almost all of whom may pencil out some profit in 2019.

  • The front-month corn futures chart hasn't ventured below $3.01 or above $4.39 1/4 since June 2014. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    After a long period of rangebound prices and normal carry spreads in the corn market, an 80-year-old economic theory may help estimate whether corn prices in 2019 should include a low or high convenience yield.

  • The continuous front-month RBOB gasoline futures chart dropped 23.8% during calendar year 2018, but a similar chart for Euronext milling wheat futures showed a 30.2% rise. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Most commodity markets are about to close 2018 with negative annual returns. Careful examination of which sectors are suffering -- energy, industrial metals, edible oils -- suggests even the grains should be concerned about the...

  • Net cash farm income is forecast to decline 10.5% in 2018, according to USDA's Economic Research Service. DTN illustration by Elaine Kub.

    Kub's Den

    Back-of-envelope calculations suggest the "average" farmer who sold cash grain at harvest may have lost 53 cents per bushel on corn in 2018, and 94 cents per bushel on soybeans, but individual results will vary and can be...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1/2 cent lower. January soybeans 7 1/4 cents lower. Chicago wheat 6 1/2 cent higher. Crude oil traded as low as $50.10 per barrel overnight.