Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

Recent Blogs by Author

  • The nationwide average new-crop corn basis bid in September 2017 isn't stronger than the averages seen in the past three years. Ninety-five percent of all basis bids can fit within a range of two standard deviations away from each data set's average.

    There is usually an expectation that local areas with poor crops might see a response in their new-crop basis bids. The data from September 2017, however, doesn't show significantly more...

More From This Author

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 higher. Soybeans 1 1/4 lower. Wheat 6 1/2 higher. Bearish concerns about the global economy continue to pressure commodity markets.

  • Schnitkey, G. and J. Coppess. "Pre-Harvest Hedging and Revenue Protection." farmdoc daily (8):88, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 15, 2018. (Source Data)

    Kub's Den

    A recent survey of farmers conducted by University of Illinois ag economists suggests 41% of corn is typically hedged by July 1. How do your marketing choices compare?

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 higher. Soybeans 2 higher. Wheat 7 1/2 higher. Some investor liquidation of risky commodity positions may still be ongoing Wednesday.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 7 1/2 lower. Soybeans 22 3/4 lower. Wheat 11 1/4 lower. Global equity markets and other consumer commodities also show bearish concerns Tuesday morning.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/4 lower. Soybeans 2 lower. Wheat 6 3/4 lower. Outside markets have been similarly depressed by the prospect of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 5 1/2 lower. Soybeans 19 3/4 lower. Wheat 10 1/2 lower. Old crop corn contracts are hitting new contract lows.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 5 1/4 lower. Soybeans 4 lower. Wheat 10 lower. Soybean contracts explored some higher movement overnight, and outside commodity markets are mixed.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 lower. Soybeans 9 3/4 lower. Wheat 6 lower. July soybeans dropped to $9.42 overnight, a fresh 2018 low for the contract.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 higher. Soybeans 4 1/4 higher. Wheat 5 higher. These markets are likely to change tone mid-morning when a monthly supply and demand report is released.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 lower. Soybeans 2 lower. Wheat 2 1/4 higher. Higher movement in winter wheat prices echo last week's stronger basis bids to express disappointment about harvested yields.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/4 higher. Soybeans 3 1/4 lower. Wheat 2 higher. Having already dropped by double digits this week, the grain markets may now find support.

  • Week-by-week photographs of a corn field in South Dakota as it progressed through the 2016 growing season. (Photos by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Each trading session that passes during a corn-growing season is one less day for the crop to experience yield risk, and one less day for the market to price in that risk.

  • Nothing is more optimistic than a soybean seed putting out its radicle (primary root) at the start of a growing season, and the soybean markets have expressed similar optimism in recent sessions. (Photo by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Trading fungible assets in liquid markets (like the commodity grain markets) should be easy. Unfortunately, when contracts cross international boundaries, history shows there will always be complexities and inefficiencies.

  • Comparing U.S. and China new crop soy-to-corn price ratios. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    A recent drop in the soybean price while corn prices rallied has dramatically changed the American soybean-to-corn price ratio, but China's bullishness for corn has been a months-long feature in its new crop futures price...

  • Recently, most livestock futures markets (including front-month lean hogs) showed stronger correlations to the S&P 500 Index than most grain futures markets. (DTN chart)

    Kub's Den

    During recent trading sessions, the day-to-day direction of certain ag commodity markets has closely resembled the day-to-day outlook for the consumer economy, as reflected in the S&P 500 Index of stock prices.

  • Source data: April 10, 2018 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Graphic by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Ending stocks-to-use projections for some agricultural commodities may be more bullish than the headline row-crop figures suggest.

  • The human mind will try to find patterns on any chart, but even this record of 268 years of wheat prices contains problematic sampling biases and represents only four samples of any 60-year cycle. (DTN chart)

    Kub's Den

    Grain marketing isn't easy during long periods of relatively low prices. It's tempting to believe in stories about multi-year cycles, suggesting a low price won't be revisited for the next several decades, but statistical tests can...