South America Calling

A couple of storm systems have brought some needed rains to Argentina and southern Brazil during the last week. More systems appear to do the same during the next week.

The expectation of La Nina to be in place for this spring could be a concern again for corn and soybeans in Argentina and Brazil.

Myriad weather challenges has filled out the second season (safrinha) corn crop from start to end. As more of the damaged crop is harvested, producers in Brazil will likely welcome the end of the season and prepare for the new soybean season.

Cold temperatures noted across much of Argentina and Brazil produced frosty morning temperatures which may have hurt filling corn in southern Brazil. Temperatures will rise through the next week, with above normal temperatures by next week.

Despite little shower activity during recent weeks, soil moisture for developing winter wheat has remained quite good in Argentina and portions of southern Brazil.

Some isolated showers fell over southern portions of central Brazil last week, but amounts were not enough to reverse the declining yields. Precipitation over southern Brazil has been and is forecast to continue to have a more positive impact for corn. Argentina is doing better...

Soil moisture continues to decline in Brazil safrinha corn areas ahead of pollination.

Brazil rain has turned well-below normal in April. That trend looks to continue during the important safrinha corn months of May and June.

Central Brazil corn areas have seen only brief dryness easing in the past week. Dryness is set to return to safrinha corn through next week.

A drier period has developed over central and northern Brazil this week. Models indicate that below-normal rainfall could last all the way through April, giving rise to greater concern for a safrinha corn crop that is already behind.

Recent moderate to heavy rainfall over Argentina and southern Brazil has had a significant positive impact on immature corn and soybeans. More showers in the same region through the next week will eat further into drought conditions.

Soybean harvest continues to lag the normal pace, but the rate of progress is normal, given the two-week delay to the start of the main growing season. Dryness in Argentina will continue during the next 10 days while showers in Brazil will become more isolated next week.

Daily showers continue to bring widespread rains to central and northern Brazil. It has dried out across southern Brazil and most of Argentina. A couple of fronts will bring only low chances of brief showers to those regions through the next week. They may be enough to...

The six- to 10-day forecast offers a window of drier conditions for southern Brazil harvest, but places harvest-disrupting rain over central Brazil.

A front moving through Brazil will stall from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais this weekend. Areas to the south should see improved conditions for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting, though it may be short. Northern areas should expect to see more delays.

February could be sketchy for safrinha corn planting as showers are too abundant over the south and likely not enough across the north. Here's an extended look at what Brazil crops can expect for weather into May, thanks to a La Nina pattern.

Only short-term rainfall benefit is indicated for Argentina during the next two weeks.

La Nina values remain robust at heart of South America crop season.

While showers have been active more than the past 60 days for much of South America, amounts have been greatly underachieved. (DTN graphic)

A static, very-wet or very-dry scenario is forecast over Brazil and Argentina crop areas through the end of 2020.