Fundamentally Speaking

Last week's USDA Small Grain Summary reported the 2024 U.S. winter wheat yield at 51.7 bushels per acre (bpa), above the year ago 50.6 bpa and the highest since the yield of 53.6 bpa seen in 2019.

This chart shows the 2023 and 2024 winter wheat yields for the top 18 growing states and the U.S. in bushels per acre on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis is the percent those yields deviated from the 25-year trend.

The darker blue columns are those states that saw a record winter wheat yield in 2023 while the darker orange columns are those states that saw a record winter wheat yield in 2024.

The U.S. yield estimated at 51.7 bpa is 0.9% above the 25-year trend vs. the year ago 50.6 bpa which was 0.5% above trend as it appears that the hard red winter (HRW) and white winter wheat (WW) states had yields faring better this year than the soft red winter wheat (SRW) states which in general saw higher yields the year prior.

In 2023, some of the larger HRW states such as KS, NE and OK had yields of 21.6%, 9.9% and 13.3% respectively below trend with the larger WW states such as Oregon and Washington seeing yields 12.6% and 19.7% below trend.

On the other hand, record yields were seen for 2023 in the large SRW states of IL, IN, NC and OH.

This past season there were just two states with record yields, MO and SD, yet only five of the 18 states had yields below their 25-year trend vs. six last year with eight having lower yields than seen in 2023.

Some of the larger HRW states did far better with KS having yields 8 bpa better and both NE and OK seeing a 10 bpa improvement with MO up 16 bpa.

Better growing conditions in the Pacific Northwest resulted in Oregon yields up 14 bpa and Washington posting the largest improvement of any state up 16 bpa from their 2023 figure.

The market's attention now is on growing drought conditions in all key areas in the U.S. that produce winter wheat including large sections of the Pacific Northwest where white wheat is grown, the Central and Southern Plains where much of the hard red winter crop is seeded and into the southern Midwest and Delta where primarily soft red winter is grown.

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