Fundamentally Speaking

U.S. Wheat Exports Posting Modest Recovery From Last Season's 52-Year Low

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst
Chart by Joel Karlin, DTN Contributing Analyst

In its October 2024 WASDE report, USDA pegged U.S. all-wheat exports at 825 million bushels (mb) in 2024/25, unchanged from the previous month but up 17 percent from 2023/24 and the highest in four years.

Topping the year ago figure of 707 mb actually is not that difficult given 2023/24 exports were the lowest since the 1971/72 season.

Among the wheat classes, the largest year-to-year gain in exports is expected to be for Hard Red Winter (HRW) as exports of that class were the lowest ever in 2023/24 with records extending back to 1973/74.

Even though HRW exports are forecast 86 mb higher this year with much larger production and more competitive prices, the final projected figure of 220 mb would still be the second lowest on record.

This chart looks at U.S. wheat export sales and shipments in million bushels as of the third week in October on the left-hand axis while those figures as a percent of the USDA October WASDE projection are reported on the right-hand axis.

The figures in the yellow rectangles are the change in million bushels of U.S. wheat exports from the October WASDE to final estimate.

Current U.S. wheat sales of 480.8 mb is the highest for this point in the marketing year in four years as our shipments at 332.7 million.

Cumulative sales so far are 58.3% of the 825 mb WASDE projection, tied for second with the 2014/15 year as the highest sales pace since the 2013/14 marketing year and above the 10- and 25-year averages of 55.2% and 56.1% respectively.

Note that the final USDA export figures did not change substantially from their October projection over the past two years and right now there is no reason to think this year will be different as the U.S. is still facing stiff competition from other global wheat exporters even with a supposed diminished Russian presence.

Wheat, which is most sensitive to currency movements, may also be pressured by the recent rally in foreign exchange value of U.S. dollar on ideas that the pace of any Fed easing may be more measured than thought.

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