Fundamentally Speaking

As we have noted in prior blog pieces, for many of the top states that produce both and even the U.S. as a whole, it appears that the trend in corn yield growth is increasing at a faster rate than those for soybeans.

Depending on what forward prices are, this could have major implications for acreage allotments going forward.

For the second year in a row U.S. corn yields set a record but the all-time peak for soybean yields at 51.9 bushels per acre (bpa) set in 2016 still stands.

This chart shows the 2024 soybean yield as given in the USDA's November crop production report as a percent of the 25-year trend on the left-hand axis for the top 18 producing states and the U.S.

Plotted on the right and axis is the 10, 20 and 30-year trend growth rate for soybeans in bushels per acre.

Only five of the top 18 states actually even had yields this year above their respective 25-year trend led by ND and then IN, IL, MI and IA.

A number of states topped by TN and then KY, OH, WI and MN had 2024 soybean yields at least 8% or more below their 25-year trend.

Perhaps more interesting is the fact that other than Indiana, which has the highest 10-year trend yield growth rate of 1.00 bpa/year, all other 17 states have seen slower yield growth over the past 10 years from 2015 to 2014 than in the 20-year period from 2005 to 2024.

MS, which has the second highest 10-year trend yield growth rate of 0.94 bpa/year, has the highest 20-year and 30-year trend yield growth rate of 1.27 and 1.18 bpa/year respectively.

KS and ND are at the opposite end of the spectrum with negative yield growth over the past 10 years and just slightly increased in the 20- and 30-year trend yield growth rate.

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.