Fundamentally Speaking

Are U.S. corn yields increasing at a faster rate than U.S. soybean yields and if so what does that mean for planted acreage going forward?

This chart plots the annual U.S. corn and soybean yield trends in bushels per acre (bpa) on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis is the average soybean/corn price ratio received.

This data is for the 15 top states that grow both crops and the U.S.

The figures in the yellow rectangles are the corn/soybean yield trend ratios for each state and the U.S.

The USDA November crop production report indicated a 2024 U.S. corn yield of 183.1 bpa and for soybeans 51.7 bpa.

This is the second consecutive year of a record corn yield, yet we have not seen a record soybean yield since 51.9 bpa back in 2016.

This works out to a 3.54 corn/soybean yield ratio which is the fifth straight year this ratio has increased and is the second highest since 2013.

Since 2000, U.S. corn yields have increased annually by an average of 1.85 bpa and soybeans 0.63, so corn yields have risen at a rate 2.94 times faster than those for soybeans.

During that time the average U.S. soybean/corn price received on an annual basis has been 2.49.

We did this analysis for the top 15 largest corn and soybeans states and the results are interesting.

Illinois has seen the highest trend growth in both corn and soybean yields over the past 25 years with corn increasing at a 2.68 bpa/year rate and soybeans at 0.99 for a ratio of 2.70.

That is actually tied with TN for the third lowest ratio as in these states soybean yields seem to be increasing at a faster rate relatively than corn yields.

Where that is definitely happening is in KS where corn yields have increased an average of just 0.13 bpa year, the lowest of any of the 15 states while soybean yields have risen at a 0.39 bpa pace for a ratio of 0.32, also the lowest of any state as corn yields have increased only 1/3rd as fast as KS bean yields.

NC yield trend growth in corn and beans at 0.79 and 0.45 bpa/year for a ratio of 1.75 the second lowest for any of the 15 states.

The opposite situation is seen in ND where since 2000 corn yields have increased annually by an average of 1.28 bpa but soybeans only 0.17, the lowest of any state so corn yields have risen at a rate 7.73 times faster than those for soybeans.

A similar situation can be seen in SD with a yield trend ratio of 3.75 and MN at 3.86.

It is noteworthy that the Dakotas and MN that have corn yields rising at a faster rate annually than soybeans on a relative basis also have the highest soybean/corn average price ratios, perhaps reflecting more ample corn supplies based on production than soybeans.

Same thing with the states that have seen faster bean yield increases than corn such as NC and KS with the lowest soybean/corn price average ratios.

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