Fundamentally Speaking

USDA's quarterly stocks report showed U.S. corn stocks at 1.760 billion bushels (bb) as of September 1, 2024, which was below the average trade estimate of 1.853 bb and higher than the last WASDE estimate of 1.812 bb.

This is due to higher feed/residual usage in the June-August quarter than had been projected but still this is the largest amount of corn to end a marketing year since the 2019/20 season.

The quarterly stocks report also showed U.S. soybean stocks at 342 million bushels (mb) as of September 1, 2024, which was below the average trade estimate of 354 mb and just about the same as the last WASDE estimate of 340 mb and also the highest figure in four seasons.

It is interesting that even with large incoming crops based on record 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields, U.S. farmers possess an unusually large share of these 2023/24 ending stocks to carry into the new crop 2024/25 season.

On farm 9/1/24 corn stocks at 780.4 mb are 44.3% of the total stocks number, which is about the same percent as last year of 44.4% and the highest share of total stocks since September 1, 2004.

We have a similar situation in soybeans where 9/1/24 farm stocks are 111.2 mb, which is 32.5% of the total soybean stocks figure and the largest on-farm share since 39.2% back on September 2006.

On one hand, producers getting were rewarded recently for being so tight-fisted with last year's crop as corn futures have pushed to their highest levels since the end of June with soybeans at their loftiest levels since the end of July.

On the other hand, the new crop harvest is just gearing up and with the largest soybean crop ever and the second highest corn output staring them in the face, we suspect there will be increased emphasis of ridding themselves of last year's bushels to make room for the 2024 supplies.

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