Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

Recent Blogs by Author

  • The nationwide average new-crop corn basis bid in September 2017 isn't stronger than the averages seen in the past three years. Ninety-five percent of all basis bids can fit within a range of two standard deviations away from each data set's average.

    There is usually an expectation that local areas with poor crops might see a response in their new-crop basis bids. The data from September 2017, however, doesn't show significantly more...

More From This Author

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 3 1/2 higher. Soybeans 16 3/4 higher. Chicago wheat 10 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is pulling back off Wednesday's fresh 2018 high.

  • Unfortunately for farmers, corn is having a difficult time keeping up with the Consumer Price Index. (Illustration Source: DTN ProphetX and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

    Kub's Den

    Recent inflation figures suggest the economy is heating up. Although it can be favorable to farmers if commodity prices rise, there is a looming risk of higher interest rates following that higher inflation.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 2 1/4 lower. Soybeans 7 1/2 lower. Chicago wheat 5 1/2 lower. Grain futures are generally still 4 to 5 percent off last week's highs.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 1 3/4 higher. Soybeans 7 3/4 higher. Chicago wheat 1 1/2 higher. Grain futures are generally still 5 to 6 percent off last week's highs.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 5 1/4 lower. Soybeans 8 lower. Chicago wheat 12 1/2 lower. Grain futures are generally 5 to 6 percent off last week's highs.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 1/4 lower, soybeans 4 1/2 lower and Chicago wheat 2 3/4 higher. The U.S. dollar index hit a fresh yearly high and is pressuring commodities.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 3/4 higher. Soybeans 3/4 lower. Chicago wheat 6 lower. Minneapolis wheat futures are 9 1/4 lower.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 3/4 higher, soybeans 2 1/2 higher, Chicago wheat 1 1/4 higher and Minneapolis wheat futures are 4 3/4 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/2 higher. Soybeans 9 1/4 higher. Chicago wheat 1 1/2 higher. Cotton prices are also higher after Monday's Crop Progress report affirmed damage from the ongoing Southern Plains drought.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 lower, soybeans 11 1/4 lower, and Chicago wheat 4 1/2 lower.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/2 higher. Soybeans 5 lower. Chicago wheat 8 1/4 higher. Euronext wheat rallied to a 4-year high Thursday.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 2 1/4 lower. Soybeans 15 1/2 lower. Chicago wheat 5 3/4 higher. Euronext wheat rallied to another fresh high Wednesday.

  • Volume for the S&P 500 Index, and combined total volumes for corn, soybean, CBOT wheat, crude oil, and gold futures. (Data from DTN ProphetX)

    Kub's Den

    Market prices can get jumpy when trading volumes are low, so the stock markets are on guard during the typically less liquid August timeframe. But futures trade for corn, soybeans, wheat and other commodities doesn't always...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/2 higher. Soybeans 4 1/4 higher. Chicago wheat 9 higher. KC and Minneapolis wheat are higher by double digits while the European heat wave goes on.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 lower. Soybeans 5 1/4 higher. Chicago wheat 6 1/4 lower. GDP growth has improved since last quarter and came in at 4.1 percent in the Q2 report.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 5 1/2 higher. Soybeans 18 1/2 higher. Chicago wheat 8 higher. Minneapolis wheat is 14 3/4 higher, and December Euronext milling wheat is still streaking higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/4 higher. Soybeans 2 1/4 lower. Chicago wheat 12 1/2 higher. Minneapolis wheat is 16 higher, and December Euronext milling wheat has so far rallied to 200 Euros per metric ton.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 4 1/4 lower. Soybeans 4 lower. Chicago wheat 5 1/2 lower. Favorable condition ratings have been a reminder of large production prospects.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 higher. Soybeans unchanged. Chicago wheat 2 3/4 higher. Minneapolis wheat 11 1/2 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 3/4 higher. Soybeans 3 3/4 higher. Wheat 5 higher. Trading volume could pick up through the day and accelerate or change the markets' direction.

  • Inflation has been mild -- but not zero -- during recent years, and it has affected the real value of a bushel of soybeans. (Chart by Elaine Kub using data from DTN ProphetX and the Bureau of Labor Statistics)

    Kub's Den

    Soybean prices are at nine-year lows in nominal terms, but 2008 was a long time ago and the value of a dollar changes from one timeframe to the next. In real inflation-adjusted terms, today's soybean values present a historically...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 2 1/4 higher. Soybeans 4 1/2 higher. Wheat 5 higher. If they can resist pressure from a stronger dollar, the markets might post a third straight day of gains.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 4 1/4 higher. Soybeans 5 1/2 higher. Wheat 8 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/4 lower. Soybeans 1/2 lower. Wheat 4 lower. Soybeans hit fresh contract lows overnight but may now be looking for a bounce.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 2 1/2 lower. Soybeans 8 1/2 lower. Wheat 3 3/4 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/4 lower. Soybeans 9 1/2 lower. Wheat 5 3/4 lower. Nevertheless, prices are generally about 3 percent above last week's contract lows.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 higher. Soybeans 1 higher. Wheat steady. These gains are fragile and don't alter the overall bearish trends.

  • Compared to the futures spreads, the cash markets tend to reflect more extreme discounts or premiums for hard red winter wheat versus hard red spring wheat. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    A close examination of cash price spreads in the respective hard red winter and hard red spring wheat markets suggests historically normal expectations for protein distribution in wheat harvested across the U.S. Plains.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 4 3/4 higher. Soybeans 1/2 higher. Wheat 11 3/4 higher. A lower U.S. dollar may be directing the grains upward at the start of the session.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 3/4 lower. Soybeans 1 1/2 lower. Wheat 3 1/4 higher. Every new piece of fundamental data about the 2018 corn crop continues to seem bearish.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 lower. Soybeans 2 3/4 lower. Wheat 1 higher. Weekly export sales were seen as neutral for corn and soybeans, and bearish for wheat.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 higher. Soybeans 9 1/4 higher. Wheat 4 1/4 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3/4 higher. Soybeans 7 1/4 higher. Wheat 4 1/4 lower.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 higher. Soybeans 1 1/4 lower. Wheat 6 1/2 higher. Bearish concerns about the global economy continue to pressure commodity markets.

  • Schnitkey, G. and J. Coppess. "Pre-Harvest Hedging and Revenue Protection." farmdoc daily (8):88, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 15, 2018. (Source Data)

    Kub's Den

    A recent survey of farmers conducted by University of Illinois ag economists suggests 41% of corn is typically hedged by July 1. How do your marketing choices compare?

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 higher. Soybeans 2 higher. Wheat 7 1/2 higher. Some investor liquidation of risky commodity positions may still be ongoing Wednesday.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 7 1/2 lower. Soybeans 22 3/4 lower. Wheat 11 1/4 lower. Global equity markets and other consumer commodities also show bearish concerns Tuesday morning.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/4 lower. Soybeans 2 lower. Wheat 6 3/4 lower. Outside markets have been similarly depressed by the prospect of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 5 1/2 lower. Soybeans 19 3/4 lower. Wheat 10 1/2 lower. Old crop corn contracts are hitting new contract lows.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 5 1/4 lower. Soybeans 4 lower. Wheat 10 lower. Soybean contracts explored some higher movement overnight, and outside commodity markets are mixed.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 lower. Soybeans 9 3/4 lower. Wheat 6 lower. July soybeans dropped to $9.42 overnight, a fresh 2018 low for the contract.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 higher. Soybeans 4 1/4 higher. Wheat 5 higher. These markets are likely to change tone mid-morning when a monthly supply and demand report is released.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 lower. Soybeans 2 lower. Wheat 2 1/4 higher. Higher movement in winter wheat prices echo last week's stronger basis bids to express disappointment about harvested yields.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/4 higher. Soybeans 3 1/4 lower. Wheat 2 higher. Having already dropped by double digits this week, the grain markets may now find support.

  • Week-by-week photographs of a corn field in South Dakota as it progressed through the 2016 growing season. (Photos by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Each trading session that passes during a corn-growing season is one less day for the crop to experience yield risk, and one less day for the market to price in that risk.

  • Nothing is more optimistic than a soybean seed putting out its radicle (primary root) at the start of a growing season, and the soybean markets have expressed similar optimism in recent sessions. (Photo by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Trading fungible assets in liquid markets (like the commodity grain markets) should be easy. Unfortunately, when contracts cross international boundaries, history shows there will always be complexities and inefficiencies.