Editors' Notebook

Third La Nina Year Influenced Lower Production, Forage Shortages and Higher Grain Prices

Greg D Horstmeier
By  Greg D Horstmeier , DTN Editor-in-Chief
Connect with Greg:
Three years of La Nina isn't unheard of, but it's rare enough to be big news in 2022. (DTN graphic by John Baranick)

As we highlighted the year's big stories, it goes without saying that weather would probably be in the top five events or issues that we thought shaped the year that was.

That we chose weather as THE story for 2022, however, was not just because of the influence it had over the country this past year. Its top billing was mostly due to its long-living condition: 2022 marked three consecutive years when a La Nina condition shaped our weather patterns throughout the growing season.

The full story on 2022's weather influences is here:

https://www.dtnpf.com/… or in our Top Stories segment for DTN subscribers.

In his look back, DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick walks us through the issues this somewhat rare situation created, in the United States and elsewhere. The back story to all that, however, is how this weather condition, three years running, began to take a toll that led to so many other issues across the country, and will continue to play a role even as weather patterns move into more neutral -- neither La Nina nor El Nino -- conditions as Baranick predicts for 2023.

Baranick was quick to put perspective on this rare three-year phenomenon, correcting me when I exclaimed on the rarity as I wasn't sure I'd seen three in my 60-plus years.

"It's rare, but it's certainly not unheard of," Baranick said. "These seem to be happening about every 20 years or so," a fact that gave DTN weather experts the confidence to predict 2022 would continue to see a La Nina pattern way back at the end of 2021.

In the graphic that accompanies this piece, Baranick highlights the triple-hits of the mid 1970s, 1990s and the 2020-22 periods. One of the things DTN has always brought to its customers is that historical perspective, and the analysis of what those weather events mean in farming and ranching terms.

The long-term effects of continued La Nina conditions are hard to miss. U.S. grain supplies, particularly soybeans, struggled to stay up with demand, keeping a firm support on prices. While the western U.S. got some moisture reprieve, fires, dry soils and low hay and forage supplies continue to plague our farmers west of the Mississippi. The farther west, the worse things were.

Those hot, dry conditions set up one of the saddest stories we've had to tell in a while, the deaths of more than 10,000 cattle in west-central Kansas due to multiple days of 100-degree heat, high humidity, little night-time cooling and no wind. Animals simply overheated, succumbing to the constant stress.

Progressive Farmer Senior Editor Victoria Myers broke the story and dug into the unusual conditions that created it in her June story, which can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

If you attended our the DTN Virtual Ag Summit in early December, you heard Baranick's latest outlook for rest of winter and the beginning of the 2023 season. The good news is the chance of a fourth La Nina in a row is very low. More "neutral" conditions, not a La Nina, nor the El Nino patterns that can bring more precipitation to the Corn Belt than we can often use, should bring some level of normalcy to spring and summer. But many areas will continue to be plagued by the lack of soil moisture thanks to our long La Nina courtship.

We can only hope for something other than weather to top our Top 10 list for the coming year.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

If you missed any of our Top 10 stories from 2022, our complete list is here:

No. 10: "Farmland Values Smash Records in 2022, Undeterred by Interest Rate Hikes," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 9: "Machinery Shortages Continued in 2022," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 8: "Big Year for Ag in Supreme Court Cases on Prop 12, Clean Water Act, Roundup," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 7: "Mississippi and Ohio Rivers Hit Rock Bottom in Fall 2022," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 6: "Climate Takes Center Stage With Inflation Reduction Act, USDA Grant Programs in 2022," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 5: "Soy Crush Plants Give Long-Term Support to Bean Markets," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 4: "New Packing Plants Point to Long-Term Shifts for Cattle Business," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 3: "Fertilizer, Ag Chemicals, Fuel All Saw Price Hikes on Supply Concerns in 2022," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 2: "Russian Plan for Easy Conquest Riled 2022 Grain Markets," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

No. 1: "La Nina Remained in Control for Crop Year, Became Most Influential 2022 Ag Story," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

"Revisiting the Year's Big Stories," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

You can find the runners-up in DTN's top 10 list on Jan. 1.

To see some of our coverage of La Nina throughout the year, see:

-- "Is La Nina Returning to Southern Brazil?" https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "La Nina Brings Likely Hot and Dry Start to South America Growing Season," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "Break in the La Nina Dryness for Argentina, Brazil," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "Broken-Record Forecast Not Helpful in South America," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "Waning La Nina Brings Challenges for Spring Planting," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "Here's Why Winds Have Been So Strong: La Nina and Friends," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "La Nina Influence Dominates April Climate Report," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- La Nina Brings Crop Yield Challenges and Hurricane Risk This Summer," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "La Nina Dominated Spring Weather Patterns," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "La Nina to Continue Through 2022 Growing Season," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "Central Plains Were Record-Dry in August ... With Some Thanks Going to La Nina," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "La Nina-Enhanced Drought Fuels Nebraska Wildfire, Slashes Great Plains Wheat Crop," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Greg D. Horstmeier can be reached at greg.horstmeier@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @greghorstmeier

P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .