Canada Markets

Statistics Canada has forecast larger crops this week, while combines are rolling across much of the Prairies. Despite this, Saskatchewan bids for several pulse and special crops were reported higher this week as prices attempted to stabilize.

The Canadian dollar reached its weakest trade since November 2020 on Sept. 1, while a breach of retracement support could result in a continued slide.

The Durum/HRS spread is historically weak for this time of year. Focus lies on the prairie production potential, while we know that Europe will look to Canada for durum despite a slow start to their imports.

This week's Statistics Canada production estimate is the first of two back-to-back estimates, while we calculate potential crop year supplies for comparison against historical supplies based on government estimates to-date.

Statistics Canada's crop production estimates, based on July model data, point to sharply higher crop production. At the same time, August conditions will be taken into account when the next report is released on Sept. 14.

The July canola crush reached the highest volume seen in eight months.

Rapid progress on the west side of Saskatchewan has the overall current harvest progress equal to the five-year average at 16%. When the average is calculated using the 2016-20 data, the current pace of harvest is ahead of average. Warm, dry weather in the forecast will...

Statistics Canada reported the Canadian cattle herd falling to the lowest level seen since July 1, 1988.

In advance of official Statistics Canada production and stocks estimates, AAFC's August supply and demand estimates include upward revisions in estimated production for a few crops, with the upward revision for durum standing out from other crops.

Aug. 22 saw canola's largest one day move realized in August, ending $24.80/mt, while today's close is just $0.95/mt from the mid-point of the range traded over the past eight weeks.

In advance of two Statistics Canada model-based production estimates, due for release late August and again in mid-September, we look at historic yields based on averages that include and exclude 2021 data, along with the 20-year trend.

Early harvest activity has led to a week-over-week increase in primary elevator grain stocks, the first increase in six weeks. Elevators have significant space as we move into harvest.

November rapeseed closed lower for a fourth session on Aug. 17, breaching its July low as well as retracement support.

The durum market is in a period of waiting with the North American harvest in early stages.

The USDA's global forecast for canola/rapeseed is viewed as bearish, with global production forecast to grow faster than global use and stocks expected to grow. This forecast is highly dependent on Canada's production potential.

The August WASDE report included a modest change in global wheat stocks for 2022-23, although a different picture is painted when China's stocks are excluded.

While media is reporting that Russia is considering removing a ban on rapeseed exports from eastern growing regions into Asian countries, current USDA estimates do not indicate a threat in 2022-23.

Southern Alberta feed barley trade is reported at the lowest level seen in over one year. The forecast for 2022-23 shows ending stocks remaining close to all-time lows, while China's demand remains a wild card.

The ICE Canada Canola Board Margin Index is not only signaling a much stronger index than seen this time last year but is also signaling front-end demand as harvest nears.

CFTC data as of Aug. 2 shows noncommercial traders increasing their bullish net-long position in soybean oil, soymeal and soybean futures, while paring their bearish net-short position in canola futures.