Canada Markets

November rapeseed closed lower for a fourth session on Aug. 17, breaching its July low as well as retracement support.

The durum market is in a period of waiting with the North American harvest in early stages.

The USDA's global forecast for canola/rapeseed is viewed as bearish, with global production forecast to grow faster than global use and stocks expected to grow. This forecast is highly dependent on Canada's production potential.

The August WASDE report included a modest change in global wheat stocks for 2022-23, although a different picture is painted when China's stocks are excluded.

While media is reporting that Russia is considering removing a ban on rapeseed exports from eastern growing regions into Asian countries, current USDA estimates do not indicate a threat in 2022-23.

Southern Alberta feed barley trade is reported at the lowest level seen in over one year. The forecast for 2022-23 shows ending stocks remaining close to all-time lows, while China's demand remains a wild card.

The ICE Canada Canola Board Margin Index is not only signaling a much stronger index than seen this time last year but is also signaling front-end demand as harvest nears.

CFTC data as of Aug. 2 shows noncommercial traders increasing their bullish net-long position in soybean oil, soymeal and soybean futures, while paring their bearish net-short position in canola futures.

The three-year average commercial stocks/total stocks ratio is used to forecast 2021-22 ending stocks for select grains. The end result is higher ending stocks for the select crops than currently forecast by AAFC, although the model fails to accurately account for canola...

Canada is one of the three major wheat exporters forecast to increase exports in 2022-23.

Nearby spring wheat futures broke through lows reached over the past four weeks on Wednesday only to change direction and close higher.

This study looks at yield changes from Alberta Agriculture's first estimated yield to their last estimate of the season over the past five years to find that crop yield estimates tend to be revised higher.

In week 51, Canada's all-wheat exports are shown as being the second highest of the crop year, next to the volume shipped in week 1. Terminal inventories remain high along with daily unloads, positioning shippers for nearby ability to ship ahead of new crop.

The European milling wheat future is the first to face the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war's impact on grain shipments; current trade points to subdued buying interest while buyers face chart resistance.

This week's USDA attache report on Canada Grain and Feed points includes a forecast for Canada's export potential that exceeds the current Canadian government estimate, while pointing to challenges expected over the upcoming crop year.

Canola's noncommercial long position has been sliding lower over 2022, while it is likely that this selling will soon end.

Statistics Canada shows the canola crush increasing for the first time in three months in June, likely on track to achieve the AAFC target of 8.3 mmt for 2021-22. Current forecasts for 2022-23 shows canola exports leading the recovery.

AAFC's July supply and demand tables include the latest official seeded acre estimates. Overall stocks of grain are to rebound from the record lows expected for 2021-22.

November canola closed lower for a third session, breaching certain support while respecting other levels of support. The noncommercial long position was reported to fall to its lowest level in two years as of July 12.

While grain stocks are normally tightening instore western terminals in the later weeks of the crop year, current grain stocks are seen rising.