Under the Agridome

It has been quite the last few days here on my farm about 17 kilometers (10.5 miles) from the American border. That might be a strange way of describing exactly where I am located. However, like most Canadians we live very close to the American border. For the most part throughout a modern history that is simply been a convenience, related to history and climate.

However, since the election of President Donald Trump, our world has changed. Earlier in February, Canadians faced an American administration calling for us to become the 51st state. At the same time, punitive tariffs of 25% and 10% on energy were threatened. In many ways it was like the War of 1812 again. Trade wars have no winners but when it's between the best of friends and allies over time, it's almost hard to believe what's happening.

This is the way the Globe and Mail's Tony Keller put it: "Claiming that a trade war with us is about drug overdoses in the U.S. makes about as much sense as invading Iceland to stop Iran from getting the bomb."

Staring into the barrel of an American gun is unpleasant for every Canadian. In fact, there were boos coming on the American anthem at many of the Canadian hockey arenas within the NHL. The same thing happened at the NBA Raptors game in Toronto. At the end of the day on Feb. 3, the President Trump relented for 30 days on imposing crushing tariffs. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to the nation on the temporary settlement for Canadians. It was a step away from the abyss, but so much damage has been done. In the first week of March, we will be here once again, which in many ways is a condemnation on the whole process.

Earlier, the Canadian government had presented full trade retaliation against any imposition of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. That was the right response in a tug-of-war where we had little choice. We all know the 25% tariffs on everything and 10% tariffs on exports to the U.S. would be crippling to the Canadian economy. Even now, especially in our agricultural economy, things are very difficult. There is a "stickiness" to our border which is negative for economic growth and our standard of living.

Case in point is the shipments of agricultural goods across the Canadian/United States border. As you all know, this is very important not only to both countries, but to farmers on both sides of the line. Having written this column for 38 years, I have been there to document all of the considerations regarding the first free trade agreement with the U.S. in 1989, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) years later and four years ago the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Unfortunately, the impending violation of USMCA is causing goods to back up on both sides of the border. At the present time, some American buyers are holding back orders if a tariff applies. Multiply this by whatever constant you want, and you get inordinate uncertainty. Any agricultural economy hates that.

I was ready for a punitive move by the U.S. government. In other words, I still think the tariffs will come and then we will find out what crippling means. In my mind, it means a curtailing of demand for Canadian products whether that is grain, livestock, auto parts or widgets.

What that means is a contraction of our greater economy which means unemployment will rise. There will be less choices of products to buy and trade. There will be tangible evidence of economic pain visible every day.

However, it doesn't mean the end of Canada and it doesn't mean that we cannot come back from this and thrive another day. It just is what it is, an unnecessary, reckless punitive move by an American president on the greatest ally the U.S. has ever had.

Prime Minister Trudeau and our Canadian team got the 30-day reprieve by implementing a $1.3 billion border plan. He committed to a fentanyl czar. He committed to a joint task force on organized crime as well as listing cartels as terrorists in Canada. All Canadians know what this was: a response to buy time with an American president who means harm to us.

As we move ahead, there will be adjustments for all of us. Sure, none of this feels good. I do not believe the apocalyptic economic predictions if tariffs are imposed. It is a reckless time. Our nation has always forged ahead with the great default that the U.S. was a stable democracy and it's clear in 2025 all of that has changed.

Finding our path forward will likely be uneven, especially in the short term. We need to stand up for what we believe in and not back down anymore, not one millimetre.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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