Canada Markets

The three-year average commercial stocks/total stocks ratio is used to forecast 2021-22 ending stocks for select grains. The end result is higher ending stocks for the select crops than currently forecast by AAFC, although the model fails to accurately account for canola...

Canada is one of the three major wheat exporters forecast to increase exports in 2022-23.

Nearby spring wheat futures broke through lows reached over the past four weeks on Wednesday only to change direction and close higher.

This study looks at yield changes from Alberta Agriculture's first estimated yield to their last estimate of the season over the past five years to find that crop yield estimates tend to be revised higher.

In week 51, Canada's all-wheat exports are shown as being the second highest of the crop year, next to the volume shipped in week 1. Terminal inventories remain high along with daily unloads, positioning shippers for nearby ability to ship ahead of new crop.

The European milling wheat future is the first to face the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war's impact on grain shipments; current trade points to subdued buying interest while buyers face chart resistance.

This week's USDA attache report on Canada Grain and Feed points includes a forecast for Canada's export potential that exceeds the current Canadian government estimate, while pointing to challenges expected over the upcoming crop year.

Canola's noncommercial long position has been sliding lower over 2022, while it is likely that this selling will soon end.

Statistics Canada shows the canola crush increasing for the first time in three months in June, likely on track to achieve the AAFC target of 8.3 mmt for 2021-22. Current forecasts for 2022-23 shows canola exports leading the recovery.

AAFC's July supply and demand tables include the latest official seeded acre estimates. Overall stocks of grain are to rebound from the record lows expected for 2021-22.

November canola closed lower for a third session, breaching certain support while respecting other levels of support. The noncommercial long position was reported to fall to its lowest level in two years as of July 12.

While grain stocks are normally tightening instore western terminals in the later weeks of the crop year, current grain stocks are seen rising.

The USDA estimates that the EU's biodiesel consumption rose to a record in 2021, while poised to remain flat in 2022. The use of rapeseed oil is to increase slightly in 2022, while its significance in the blend of feedstocks has waned over time.

Alberta's Crop Report as of July 12 shows the crop condition close to unchanged from two weeks earlier.

The Canadian dollar closed lower for a second straight week, while was able to uncover what may prove to be solid support.

The Saskatchewan government's crop condition ratings is used to create a crop condition index, with this index as of July 11 well above the same week in 2021 and also above average for this week.

The July WASDE report includes estimates that show a rebound in U.S. HRS production and imports while facing higher demand, leading to ending stocks forecast to reach the lowest in 15 years.

Supply and demand estimates for crops are a challenge early in the season, with the crop far from in the bin. Today's USDA WASDE estimates can be viewed as attractive for Canadian wheat if realized.

Demand for shipping grain normally tapers in the latter weeks of the crop year, although there are signs that this year could be different.

December spring wheat closed higher for the first time in four weeks, while we look to technical signs of a potential change in trend.