Canada Markets

AAFC took a cautious approach to its soybean forecast in October. Canadian exports reported for the week ending Oct. 25 were reported at 326,400 metric tons, the largest volume shipped in 99 shipping weeks or since the week ending Nov. 25, 2018.

The Canadian dollar has weakened against the USD this week, breaching chart support while nearing the lower end of a range traded over two months. An RBC study shows the loonie less tied to the fortunes of commodities, while highly correlated to moves in global equity...

January canola made a limit move lower in overnight trade but recovered to close down $8.40/metric ton. Large speculative long positions have added to the volatility in the grains today.

Canada's canola crush dipped in September, which is normal, but the volume processed is still the largest for the month of September. While AAFC has forecast exports to remain steady with 2019-20 volumes, they currently forecast a year-over-year drop in canola volumes...

As of week 11, demand for prairie grain shipping is 31% higher than 2019-20 and well-above the three-year average. To-date, 93.4% of this demand has been met. The number of cancelled cars continues to grow, with more to be expected in the weeks ahead.

Canada's wheat exports are off to a rapid start, well-ahead of the historical pace. At the same time, government forecasts for 2020-21 were left unchanged this month and suggest that current crop year exports will be only marginally higher than the previous crop year.

We look at the trend in Saskatchewan Agriculture's yield estimates for select crops, while comparing to the most recent Statistics Canada estimates. This points towards crops where significant adjustments may be seen in early December when the government releases final...

Oat futures for December delivery have reached new contract highs this week with growing noncommercial buying interest seen over a number of weeks. The Dec/March spread is inverted, signaling firm front-end demand.

The Jan canola contract, as seen on the continuous active chart, reached its highest trade since May 2016, while could be poised for the highest weekly close since June 2013.

Here we look at the cumulative deliveries of select prairie crops into licensed facilities as of week 10 as a percentage of total estimated farm supplies, calculated by adding the July 31 farm stocks estimate with Statistics Canada latest production estimate.

Durum prices have pushed higher as harvest reaches an end, despite commercial stocks ballooning to levels above 1 million metric tons.

Dec. MGEX spring wheat broke above resistance on Oct. 15, with weather a major influence behind even greater moves in winter wheat trade.

We look at how canola futures and basis have acted this month as harvest nears an end. Across the nine regions of the Prairies, basis ranges from $7.47/mt stronger than average to $6.44/mt weaker than average, based on pdqinfo.ca price data as of Oct. 13.

We look at how various combinations of wheat acres and yield result in a year-over-year change in ending stocks, leaving demand fixed. Export movement remains at a brisk pace, however, and projects forward to volumes well-above current forecasts.

We look at positive signals in weekly Canadian Grain Commission data as of week 9 that signals a great start to the crop year and a signal of more positive news to follow.

Saskatchewan Agriculture revised provincial yield estimates in both directions, varied by crop. Today we compare the province's estimates along with the official estimates for the province and the five-year average released by Statistics Canada.

Canada's barley stocks for 2019-20 came in well-below earlier government estimates, while there are a number of factors that could lead to tighter stocks for 2020-21.

Each month, we look at Canada's trade in selected grains and products, as reported by Statistics Canada.

Spring wheat basis strengthened in Canadian dollar terms last week, with average prices at-or-near crop-year highs.

While the Canadian crop size is being debated for 2020, we look at the tendency of the official Statistics Canada estimates to be revised higher when final estimates are released in December.