Canada Markets

The USDA revised its estimate for global wheat stocks lower for a sixth straight month in April, while continuing to ratchet China's feed demand for wheat higher.

April USDA data included upward revisions in estimates for global production of canola/rapeseed as well as stocks, although a bullish tone remains in the market.

December spring wheat has breached various levels of resistance this week, clearing the path to a return to test the contract high.

We look at Statistics Canada's February trade data as it relates to trade in select crops and crop products.

While new-crop canola has fared better than old crop over recent weeks, focus has clearly swung back to old-crop trade in the first two days of this week.

The current 4% increase in seeded acres of canola forecast by AAFC for 2021 could prove conservative, although widespread precipitation may be required to support a large jump in acres seeded this spring.

Focus has switched to new crop futures. The November contract closed modestly lower on April 1 but had a good week overall.

We look at the U.S. government's early forecast for seeded acres in 2021. A year-over-year increase in acres dedicated to soybeans, corn and winter wheat will have implications for competing crops.

Spring wheat futures for December delivery closed lower on March 30, while pausing at key support levels pending the outcome of the March 31 USDA reports.

The CGC reports February exports as the lowest volume moved through licensed facilities so far this crop year. Movement of both wheat and canola to China fell sharply this month. At the same time, CN and CP requested 9,856 cars in week 33, the largest number ordered in 13...

The volume of Canada's exports of all crops in week 33 fell below the weekly volume reported for the previous crop year for the first time since week 2.

The Canadian dollar has moved higher over the past year, although is poised for its second consecutive weekly loss. The month of April is historically the month that the Canadian dollar realizes its largest gains.

After four months of crushing more than 900,000 mt/month, the February crush was reported well-below this level, although consistent with a February drop experienced in recent years. Crush margins improved significantly on March 23.

Activity in recent weeks has seen CP Rail hit its best performance since early in the crop year, while the industry looks to CN with hopes for improved performance relative to the demand for shipping.

Week 32 canola exports were the highest seen in eight weeks and continuing well-above the volume needed in order to stay on track to reach the current government demand forecast. Canola is being aggressively delivered by producers, with supplies tightening, while the basis...

The pace of barley exports remains brisk, with AAFC increasing its export demand forecast for the current crop year. This comes at a time when China is aggressively buying U.S. corn, while seeking cheaper alternative feed grains.

While hard red spring wheat bids have slid from February highs, producers are facing an old-crop/new-crop inversion in prairie cash bids signaling front-end demand.

According to pdqinfo.ca price data, swings in the prairie cash basis for canola since early February has signaled uncertainty in this market despite the tight fundamental situation faced.

The Port of Thunder Bay had its best year in decades in 2020 in terms of its grain handling. Looking at the current level of grain stocks ahead of the 2021 opening, stocks of durum and canola are reported at above-average volumes.

While new-crop-December-2021 spring wheat futures trade range-bound, the Dec 2021/March 2022 spread trades at a weak carry, and the noncommercial net-long position is the strongest seen since 2014. As well, spring wheat futures are showing strength relative to HRW.