In the week ended Tuesday, Aug. 1, noncommercial traders increased their bullish net-long futures position for soybeans, soybean oil and soymeal for the first time in over three months or since the week of April 19 -- and all three moved in the same direction. It was a convincing move on the part of the speculative trade, with the noncommercial net-long position in soybean oil futures increasing by 44% for the first increase in eight weeks, the noncommercial net-long in soymeal futures up 3% and for a fifth consecutive week, and the noncommercial net-long position in soybeans up 8.5% and for the first time in seven weeks.
Across the top three studies on the attached chart, the noncommercial net-long position in soybean oil was the most battered, having recovered from the smallest bullish position held since the week of July 14, 2020, or over two years, while down 80% from the 2022 high in the week of July 26.
The lower study on the attached chart shows the noncommercial net-futures position for canola moving to a net-short position as of June 28, while this bearish position has increased for four consecutive weeks to a low of 19,072 contracts net-short as of July 26; this position was finally pared by a modest 31 contracts as of Aug. 2 to 19,041 contracts.
Over the past six weeks, November canola has drifted sideways in a $133.70/metric ton (mt) range, with the Aug. 8 close near the midpoint of this range. We may be far from the bullish catalyst in the canola market to influence noncommercial traders, but bullish support from across the soy complex bears watching.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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