Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

More From This Author

  • The last time the USDA released official economic projections for the current corn marketing year, it estimated 1.781 billion bushels of corn ending stocks, accounting for an 11.8 percent stocks-to-use ratio.

    Kub's Den

    Stable corn prices stuck in a sideways trading range may not be very exciting for producers, but they are favorable for end users of various varieties, almost all of whom may pencil out some profit in 2019.

  • The front-month corn futures chart hasn't ventured below $3.01 or above $4.39 1/4 since June 2014. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    After a long period of rangebound prices and normal carry spreads in the corn market, an 80-year-old economic theory may help estimate whether corn prices in 2019 should include a low or high convenience yield.

  • The continuous front-month RBOB gasoline futures chart dropped 23.8% during calendar year 2018, but a similar chart for Euronext milling wheat futures showed a 30.2% rise. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Most commodity markets are about to close 2018 with negative annual returns. Careful examination of which sectors are suffering -- energy, industrial metals, edible oils -- suggests even the grains should be concerned about the...

  • Net cash farm income is forecast to decline 10.5% in 2018, according to USDA's Economic Research Service. DTN illustration by Elaine Kub.

    Kub's Den

    Back-of-envelope calculations suggest the "average" farmer who sold cash grain at harvest may have lost 53 cents per bushel on corn in 2018, and 94 cents per bushel on soybeans, but individual results will vary and can be...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1/2 cent lower. January soybeans 7 1/4 cents lower. Chicago wheat 6 1/2 cent higher. Crude oil traded as low as $50.10 per barrel overnight.

  • Gamblers -- and grain market participants -- get to choose not only how much to wager on which odds, but also whether or not they want to take on risk at all. (Illustration by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Although soybean futures prices themselves have been relatively flat lately, higher implied volatility numbers in soybean options contracts suggest traders are expecting better chances of bigger movements, either up or down, in...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn is down 3/4 cent, January soybeans are down 2 cents, and March Chicago wheat is down 2 cents.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 2 3/4 cents higher. January soybeans 9 1/4 cents higher, but not yet reaching $9.00 per bushel or stretching for a fresh monthly high. Chicago wheat 5 1/4 cents higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1/4 cent higher. January soybeans 5 1/2 cents higher. Chicago wheat 1 1/4 cents higher. January crude oil traded below $56 per barrel overnight.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 2 1/2 cents lower. January soybeans 5 cents higher. Chicago wheat 5 1/2 cents lower. January crude oil traded below $59 per barrel overnight.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1/4 cent higher. January soybeans 4 1/4 cents lower. Chicago wheat 3 1/2 cents higher. The dollar surged to a fresh annual high overnight and crude oil is up almost $1 per barrel.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 3 cents lower. January soybeans 2 3/4 cents lower. Chicago wheat 5 1/4 cents higher. Global edible oil prices are weaker.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/4 cents higher. January soybeans 2 1/2 cents higher. Chicago wheat 1 1/2 cents higher. Monthly supply and demand estimates will be released at 11 o'clock (Central).

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 3/4 cents lower. January soybeans unchanged. Chicago wheat 3/4 cents higher. The U.S. dollar is sharply lower after the mid-term election results.

  • The ratio between the DTN National Soybean Index and the DTN National Corn Index currently sits at 2.33-to-1, at the 26th percentile of all values in the past 10 years. (DTN graphic by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Decisions are already being made about the 2019 acreage mix. The soybean-to-corn price ratio, currently at 2.33-to-1, is smaller than average, unsurprisingly favoring corn in the present trade environment.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn is 3/4 cent lower, January soybeans are 1 3/4 cents lower and Chicago wheat is 1/2 cent higher. Outside markets have been neutral so far, but volatility is expected this week.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/4 cents higher. January soybeans 4 cents lower. Chicago wheat 3/4 cents lower. Crude oil went from posting small losses to making small gains Monday morning.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/4 cents higher. January soybeans 4 1/2 cents higher. Chicago wheat 1 cent lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is bouncing back and forth from losses to gains.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/2 higher. January soybeans 2 1/4 lower. Chicago wheat 4 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is posting dramatic losses, helpful to grains.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/4 lower. January soybeans 1/4 lower. Chicago wheat 4 3/4 lower. The U.S. Dollar Index hit a fresh 16-month high overnight.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 3/4 higher. November soybeans 3 1/2 higher. Chicago wheat 2 3/4 higher. The dollar is higher Monday morning (bearish), but so is the Brazilian real (bullish to soybeans).

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 2 higher. November soybeans 3 1/4 higher. Chicago wheat 11 higher. Outside markets are still sending investors into "safe" assets, boosting the U.S. dollar.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 2 lower. November soybeans 2 1/2 lower. Chicago wheat 3 1/4 lower. The U.S. dollar trends higher; most consumer markets trend lower.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/4 lower. November soybeans 2 3/4 lower. Chicago wheat 2 3/4 lower. The U.S. dollar is surging and stock markets are bracing for another volatile day, in one direction or another.

  • The fastest pace of corn harvest tends to arrive in weeks 42, 43 and 44, or generally the end of October and into November. (DTN graphic by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Given that the United States is expected to produce 14.8 billion bushels of corn in 2018, when the weekly harvest progress advances by 10 percentage points (as it did last week), that progress represents 211 million bushels...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn is unchanged, November soybeans are 4 1/2 cents lower and Chicago wheat is 1/2 cent lower. Selling volume in soybeans has been fairly active.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 cent higher. November soybeans 1 1/2 cents higher. Chicago wheat 3 1/4 cents lower. Global stock markets have started the week with optimism.