Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

Recent Blogs by Author

  • The nationwide average new-crop corn basis bid in September 2017 isn't stronger than the averages seen in the past three years. Ninety-five percent of all basis bids can fit within a range of two standard deviations away from each data set's average.

    There is usually an expectation that local areas with poor crops might see a response in their new-crop basis bids. The data from September 2017, however, doesn't show significantly more...

More From This Author

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/4 higher, November soybeans 7 lower and Chicago wheat 3 lower.

  • (DTN file photo)

    DTN Closing Livestock Comments

    Nearby lean hog futures have rallied over $5.00 so far this week, leaving another gap on the October chart Thursday. The rest of the livestock sector shrank lower inside previous trading ranges on a day with notably quiet...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    7:45 a.m. CDT CME Globex: December corn 1 1/4 higher. November soybeans 1 1/2 lower. Chicago wheat 4 lower.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 3/4 higher, November soybeans 1 1/2 higher, Chicago wheat 6 1/4 higher, soybean oil is down 0.23 and weakness in edible oils could weigh on soybeans.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 lower. November soybeans 3 1/4 lower. Chicago wheat 7 1/4 higher. Ethanol futures are barely budging despite gains of almost $1 per barrel in crude oil.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1/2 higher. November soybeans 3/4 lower. Chicago wheat 3 lower.

  • Strength in the corn market has offered relatively better selling opportunities for farmers during the calendar year 2018 than during 2017. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    "Great" depends on who you ask. Buyers may still appreciate an opportunity to lock in cash corn purchases within 50 cents of the five-year lows and sellers may be surprised to see better flat-price opportunities off the combine...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/4 lower. November soybeans 5 1/4 lower. Chicago wheat 8 higher. Crude oil is up another $0.70 with the threat of Hurricane Florence making landfall late Thursday.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn unchanged. November soybeans 2 3/4 lower. Chicago wheat 7 lower. Wheat carry spreads into 2019 are pulling tighter Tuesday morning.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 1/4 lower. November soybeans 2 lower. Chicago wheat 4 1/4 lower.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 lower. November soybeans 1 1/2 higher. Chicago wheat 4 1/2 lower. Storms in the forecast make the southern row crop harvest more challenging.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 lower. November soybeans 2 lower. Chicago wheat 1/2 higher. Storms in the forecast make the southern row crop harvest more challenging.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    December corn 1 3/4 higher. November soybeans 3 1/2 higher. Chicago wheat 11 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 1 3/4 higher. Soybeans 2 1/2 higher. Chicago wheat 2 1/4 higher. Crude oil has climbed over $1 per barrel this week and now approaches $70.

  • Soybean futures spreads have grown bearishly wider over the same timeframe that prices themselves have indicated a more bearish outlook. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    The market is expecting a large soybean crop with nowhere to go -- an outlook that can be seen both in the downward direction of prices and in the ever-wider futures spreads. More carry will...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 2 1/4 higher. Soybeans 4 1/4 higher. Chicago wheat 17 1/2 higher. U.S. Q2 GDP growth came in at a bullish 4.2 percent.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 1/4 higher. Soybeans 1 1/2 lower. Chicago wheat 1 3/4 higher. Soybeans' November-to-March futures spread is bearishly expanding past 27 1/4 cents Tuesday morning.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 3 1/4 lower. Soybeans 12 3/4 lower. Chicago wheat 7 3/4 lower. Soybeans' November-to-March futures spread is bearishly expanding past 26 1/2 cents Monday morning.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 3 1/2 higher. Soybeans 16 3/4 higher. Chicago wheat 10 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is pulling back off Wednesday's fresh 2018 high.

  • Unfortunately for farmers, corn is having a difficult time keeping up with the Consumer Price Index. (Illustration Source: DTN ProphetX and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

    Kub's Den

    Recent inflation figures suggest the economy is heating up. Although it can be favorable to farmers if commodity prices rise, there is a looming risk of higher interest rates following that higher inflation.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 2 1/4 lower. Soybeans 7 1/2 lower. Chicago wheat 5 1/2 lower. Grain futures are generally still 4 to 5 percent off last week's highs.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 1 3/4 higher. Soybeans 7 3/4 higher. Chicago wheat 1 1/2 higher. Grain futures are generally still 5 to 6 percent off last week's highs.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 5 1/4 lower. Soybeans 8 lower. Chicago wheat 12 1/2 lower. Grain futures are generally 5 to 6 percent off last week's highs.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 1/4 lower, soybeans 4 1/2 lower and Chicago wheat 2 3/4 higher. The U.S. dollar index hit a fresh yearly high and is pressuring commodities.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 3/4 higher. Soybeans 3/4 lower. Chicago wheat 6 lower. Minneapolis wheat futures are 9 1/4 lower.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grains

    Corn 3/4 higher, soybeans 2 1/2 higher, Chicago wheat 1 1/4 higher and Minneapolis wheat futures are 4 3/4 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/2 higher. Soybeans 9 1/4 higher. Chicago wheat 1 1/2 higher. Cotton prices are also higher after Monday's Crop Progress report affirmed damage from the ongoing Southern Plains drought.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 lower, soybeans 11 1/4 lower, and Chicago wheat 4 1/2 lower.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/2 higher. Soybeans 5 lower. Chicago wheat 8 1/4 higher. Euronext wheat rallied to a 4-year high Thursday.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 2 1/4 lower. Soybeans 15 1/2 lower. Chicago wheat 5 3/4 higher. Euronext wheat rallied to another fresh high Wednesday.

  • Volume for the S&P 500 Index, and combined total volumes for corn, soybean, CBOT wheat, crude oil, and gold futures. (Data from DTN ProphetX)

    Kub's Den

    Market prices can get jumpy when trading volumes are low, so the stock markets are on guard during the typically less liquid August timeframe. But futures trade for corn, soybeans, wheat and other commodities doesn't always...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/2 higher. Soybeans 4 1/4 higher. Chicago wheat 9 higher. KC and Minneapolis wheat are higher by double digits while the European heat wave goes on.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 lower. Soybeans 5 1/4 higher. Chicago wheat 6 1/4 lower. GDP growth has improved since last quarter and came in at 4.1 percent in the Q2 report.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 5 1/2 higher. Soybeans 18 1/2 higher. Chicago wheat 8 higher. Minneapolis wheat is 14 3/4 higher, and December Euronext milling wheat is still streaking higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/4 higher. Soybeans 2 1/4 lower. Chicago wheat 12 1/2 higher. Minneapolis wheat is 16 higher, and December Euronext milling wheat has so far rallied to 200 Euros per metric ton.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 4 1/4 lower. Soybeans 4 lower. Chicago wheat 5 1/2 lower. Favorable condition ratings have been a reminder of large production prospects.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 higher. Soybeans unchanged. Chicago wheat 2 3/4 higher. Minneapolis wheat 11 1/2 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 3/4 higher. Soybeans 3 3/4 higher. Wheat 5 higher. Trading volume could pick up through the day and accelerate or change the markets' direction.

  • Inflation has been mild -- but not zero -- during recent years, and it has affected the real value of a bushel of soybeans. (Chart by Elaine Kub using data from DTN ProphetX and the Bureau of Labor Statistics)

    Kub's Den

    Soybean prices are at nine-year lows in nominal terms, but 2008 was a long time ago and the value of a dollar changes from one timeframe to the next. In real inflation-adjusted terms, today's soybean values present a historically...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 2 1/4 higher. Soybeans 4 1/2 higher. Wheat 5 higher. If they can resist pressure from a stronger dollar, the markets might post a third straight day of gains.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 4 1/4 higher. Soybeans 5 1/2 higher. Wheat 8 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/4 lower. Soybeans 1/2 lower. Wheat 4 lower. Soybeans hit fresh contract lows overnight but may now be looking for a bounce.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 2 1/2 lower. Soybeans 8 1/2 lower. Wheat 3 3/4 higher.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 3 1/4 lower. Soybeans 9 1/2 lower. Wheat 5 3/4 lower. Nevertheless, prices are generally about 3 percent above last week's contract lows.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 higher. Soybeans 1 higher. Wheat steady. These gains are fragile and don't alter the overall bearish trends.

  • Compared to the futures spreads, the cash markets tend to reflect more extreme discounts or premiums for hard red winter wheat versus hard red spring wheat. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    A close examination of cash price spreads in the respective hard red winter and hard red spring wheat markets suggests historically normal expectations for protein distribution in wheat harvested across the U.S. Plains.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 4 3/4 higher. Soybeans 1/2 higher. Wheat 11 3/4 higher. A lower U.S. dollar may be directing the grains upward at the start of the session.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 3/4 lower. Soybeans 1 1/2 lower. Wheat 3 1/4 higher. Every new piece of fundamental data about the 2018 corn crop continues to seem bearish.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 lower. Soybeans 2 3/4 lower. Wheat 1 higher. Weekly export sales were seen as neutral for corn and soybeans, and bearish for wheat.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 higher. Soybeans 9 1/4 higher. Wheat 4 1/4 higher.