Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

Recent Blogs by Author

  • The nationwide average new-crop corn basis bid in September 2017 isn't stronger than the averages seen in the past three years. Ninety-five percent of all basis bids can fit within a range of two standard deviations away from each data set's average.

    There is usually an expectation that local areas with poor crops might see a response in their new-crop basis bids. The data from September 2017, however, doesn't show significantly more...

More From This Author

  • Nothing is more optimistic than a soybean seed putting out its radicle (primary root) at the start of a growing season, and the soybean markets have expressed similar optimism in recent sessions. (Photo by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Trading fungible assets in liquid markets (like the commodity grain markets) should be easy. Unfortunately, when contracts cross international boundaries, history shows there will always be complexities and inefficiencies.

  • Comparing U.S. and China new crop soy-to-corn price ratios. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    A recent drop in the soybean price while corn prices rallied has dramatically changed the American soybean-to-corn price ratio, but China's bullishness for corn has been a months-long feature in its new crop futures price...

  • Recently, most livestock futures markets (including front-month lean hogs) showed stronger correlations to the S&P 500 Index than most grain futures markets. (DTN chart)

    Kub's Den

    During recent trading sessions, the day-to-day direction of certain ag commodity markets has closely resembled the day-to-day outlook for the consumer economy, as reflected in the S&P 500 Index of stock prices.

  • Source data: April 10, 2018 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Graphic by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Ending stocks-to-use projections for some agricultural commodities may be more bullish than the headline row-crop figures suggest.

  • The human mind will try to find patterns on any chart, but even this record of 268 years of wheat prices contains problematic sampling biases and represents only four samples of any 60-year cycle. (DTN chart)

    Kub's Den

    Grain marketing isn't easy during long periods of relatively low prices. It's tempting to believe in stories about multi-year cycles, suggesting a low price won't be revisited for the next several decades, but statistical tests can...

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/4 lower. Soybeans 1 higher. Wheat 3 1/2 higher. Soybean meal and new crop soybean futures are unchanged.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 4 1/4 lower. Soybeans 15 1/4 lower. Wheat 7 1/2 lower. The selling mood is widespread across global stock markets and commodity markets.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/2 lower. Soybeans 4 3/4 higher. Wheat 5 1/4 lower. Soybean meal futures are higher, suggesting they've found consistent support above $370 per ton.

  • Matt Lansford, north of Clovis, New Mexico, posted this March 12, 2018, photo on Twitter (@matt_lansford) with the caption: "Day 1 picking up wheat pasture. It's a little dusty." (Photo by Matt Lansford)

    Kub's Den

    Despite large global wheat inventories, the hard red winter wheat market has responded to the ongoing Southern Plains drought with a rally that could foreshadow things to come in other grain markets.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/2 lower. Soybeans 4 higher. Wheat 1 lower. Soybean meal futures are lower, pulling back from their month-long rally.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1 1/4 higher. Soybeans 7 1/4 higher. Wheat 9 higher. Soybean meal futures are $7 higher, leading the soy complex.

  • When plotted on the same calendar, the track of the December 2017 new-crop corn futures contract and the December 2018 new-crop corn futures chart (so far) appear quite similar. (DTN chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    So far, the seasonal opportunities for pre-harvest hedging new-crop grain have matched last year's general pattern, but also have travelled the same price path almost penny-for-penny.

  • (DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

    DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

    Corn 1/2 higher. Soybeans 1 1/2 lower. Wheat 3 higher. Nearby corn futures have lately been unable to find buyers above $3.70.