Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

More From This Author

  • (DTN file photo)

    DTN Closing Livestock Comments

    The entire livestock futures sector posted gains Friday, with the most dramatic bullishness coming from the lean hog market's ongoing African swine fever concerns. Hogs were up $3.000 (limit-up).

  • (DTN file photo)

    DTN Closing Livestock Comments

    Most live and feeder futures ended the Thursday session with mild gains. But those gains were dwarfed by another huge jump in lean hog futures prices, led by the June contract which closed $2.700 higher.

  • (DTN file photo)

    DTN Closing Livestock Comments

    Live cattle futures bounced higher Wednesday; feeder cattle futures were mixed. Lean hog contracts settled mostly higher with the deferred late-2019 contracts getting the most attention (October up $1.875).

  • During the month leading up to March 5, the "managed money" futures traders accumulated an additional 182,042 short futures and options positions in the corn market. (Chart data from CFTC)

    Kub's Den

    Volatile price movements in wheat and lean hog futures have likely been driven by speculative traders shedding some of their accumulated bearish trend-following positions. There are implications for other ag markets with big...

  • (DTN file photo)

    DTN Closing Livestock Comments

    Live and feeder futures posted another day of significant downward movement, falling as much as $2.350 in the nearby live contract. Lean hog contracts, meanwhile, haven't given up their recent rally, although gains were less...

  • (DTN file photo)

    DTN Closing Livestock Comments

    Cattle futures markets were lower Monday, with feeder cattle contracts driving the losses in advance of another round of winter weather. That's in contrast to the upward momentum in the lean hog futures market, where the...

  • (DTN file photo)

    DTN Closing Livestock Comments

    Livestock contracts closed higher across the board Friday, led by a sharp rally in lean hog futures prices back toward mid-February levels. This week's Cold Storage report was considered bullish for pork. Friday afternoon's Cattle...

  • (DTN file photo)

    DTN Closing Livestock Comments

    A strong volume of futures-buying interest in the April feeder cattle market led the upward direction in livestock Thursday. Live cattle futures showed milder gains. Cash cattle trade began for the week Thursday afternoon...

  • The proportion of total U.S. field crop acreage that has gone to other crops besides corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton or sorghum has remained at about 6% over the past six years. Chart data from USDA NASS. (DTN chart)

    Kub's Den

    Diversifying into a mix of crops beyond the usual corn-and-soybean rotation can be a strategy for better financial resilience, but it needs to be a years-long project and not just a rush of farmers all clamoring for the next big...

  • The December-to-May futures spread available to be locked in on Nov. 1 of any given year (for hedged bushels in storage) has averaged a fairly stable 19 cents over the past six years. Unhedged bushels also tend to go up in value over that time, but in a less stable pattern. (DTN chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    In recent years, there have been reliable opportunities to lock in futures spreads and earn "carry" for storing grain six months past harvest. The upward trend of flat prices from harvest to springtime is less reliable.

  • Your decision to sell or store soybeans should not be affected by Market Facilitation Program payments. (Photo by Chris Clayton)

    Kub's Den

    As Market Facilitation Payments keep rolling out to 2018's soybean producers, does that extra cash flow lubricate farmer selling and the physical movement of old-crop beans? Or perhaps it mitigates cash flow needs and therefore...

  • The last time the USDA released official economic projections for the current corn marketing year, it estimated 1.781 billion bushels of corn ending stocks, accounting for an 11.8 percent stocks-to-use ratio.

    Kub's Den

    Stable corn prices stuck in a sideways trading range may not be very exciting for producers, but they are favorable for end users of various varieties, almost all of whom may pencil out some profit in 2019.

  • The front-month corn futures chart hasn't ventured below $3.01 or above $4.39 1/4 since June 2014. (DTN ProphetX chart)

    Kub's Den

    After a long period of rangebound prices and normal carry spreads in the corn market, an 80-year-old economic theory may help estimate whether corn prices in 2019 should include a low or high convenience yield.

  • The continuous front-month RBOB gasoline futures chart dropped 23.8% during calendar year 2018, but a similar chart for Euronext milling wheat futures showed a 30.2% rise. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Most commodity markets are about to close 2018 with negative annual returns. Careful examination of which sectors are suffering -- energy, industrial metals, edible oils -- suggests even the grains should be concerned about the...