Canada Markets

According to the government's recent estimates, ending stocks of Canadian wheat (excluding durum) in 2023-24 will be close to 3 mmt for a third year, while the current pace of exports is well ahead of the forecast pace.

AAFC revised its forecast for 2023-24 canola exports lower for the first time in six months, while the slow pace of movement may require more downward revisions.

Dry pea exports through licensed facilities are seen as the highest in three years as of week 28. Cumulative exports as a percentage of the forecast exports for 2023-24 is also exceptionally high for this week.

The USDA's first look at the 2024-25 crop year shows soybean oil production slightly exceeding consumption, leading to a year-over-year increase in stocks and continued pressure on prices.

A sharp drop in the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart saw Canada's currency reach a 2024 low against the USD, while breaching chart support.

Large green lentil bids remain attractive in old-crop and new-crop positions.

Both commercial and noncommercial traders moved to fresh record net futures positions in canola for the week ending Feb. 6.

This week's reports point to Canada's tightening durum stocks while prairie prices continue to face pressure.

Statistics Canada released its official estimates for Dec. 31 grain stocks today, a report largely overshadowed by the USDA's February WASDE report.

This study looks at miscellaneous December trade data for select crops and crop products.

Canada's barley exports are down from the previous year, as expected, while movement over the first half of the crop year would indicate the government export forecast is overstated.

This study looks at the response of the nearby May canola contract on the day when the Statistics Canada Dec. 31 Grain Stocks report has been released in the past.

Canola exports improved in week 26 but remain weak, with the cumulative volume shipped over the first half of 2023-24 well behind AAFC's forecast pace.

December MGEX spring wheat is holding above the contract low reached in January.

This study looks at estimated crop returns found in the Saskatchewan government's annual Crop Planning Guide for 2024, which estimates costs and returns for 31 crops.

This study looks at the CGC's August-through-December export data for wheat (excluding durum). Movement remains favorable despite growing global competition.

March European milling wheat reached a fresh low on Monday on bearish fundamental data released.

Canada's wheat exports continue at a pace well ahead of the current forecast pace.

Soybean oil trade faced heavy selling on Thursday, while the contract's May 2023 low is the next level of potential chart support.

Canada's canola crush increased for a third time in four months, while runs ahead of the pace needed to reach the current government forecast.