Canada Markets

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 33 Grain Statistics Weekly shows wheat exports (excluding durum) for the week through licensed facilities of 515,100 metric tons (mt). This is the largest volume shipped in three weeks and the eighth largest weekly volume shipped this crop year. It is also above the volume needed this week to reach AAFC's current 20.250 million metric ton (mmt) export forecast for 2023-24 -- the seventh time over the past 10 consecutive weeks. The export demand estimate was left unchanged in the government's March report.

Cumulative exports total 13.521 mmt after 33 weeks or the first 63.5% of the crop year, 5.6% higher than the same period in 2022-23, shown by the blue line on the attached chart, while 23.6% higher than the three-year average, shown by the green shaded area on the chart. This volume is roughly 670,000 mt ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast. It should be noted that the AAFC forecast for total exports includes unlicensed exports and the export of products, which are not included in the CGC's weekly data.

It is also important to note that AAFC has forecast total exports to fall by 1.8% in the current crop year, from 20.612 mmt to 20.250 mmt. This suggests exports may slow over the balance of the crop year to meet this forecast.

A look at the historic pace of licensed shipments shows that licensed exports as of week 33 have averaged 58.7% of total crop year exports over the past five years. This calculation has ranged as high as 62.6% over this period in 2022-23. Projecting the five-year average pace forward would point to crop year exports of 23 mmt, which is clearly out of reach based on current official estimates of supplies for 2023-24.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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