Canada Markets

The weekly U.S. export sales report confirmed interest in corn hasn't slowed, suggesting the USDA estimates are far too conservative. With ending stocks in world exporting and importing countries at multi-year low levels -- more of the same could be expected.

With March canola only falling $14.10/metric ton (mt) on the news of 25% tariffs applying to canola and its products, then closing higher on a Mexican tariff pause with one for Canada still unclear at the time of the markets close, the bulls should be optimistic.

With likely the last remaining wheat bull put out to pasture during Monday's selloff, the market looks like it's about ready to join the corn rally.

Some in the industry point to the rapid expansion of the money manager net-long position as a sign that the move in corn is already close to the end, after barely starting. That clearly may not be the case.

The end results will somehow differ, but the trends found in AAFC's first look at 2025-26 canola are quite disturbing. The market has failed in its primary function to send proper signals to producers and consumers to encourage or discourage supply or demand.

With a third of the U.S. marketing year in the rear-view mirror, corn exports to Canada are a fraction of historical levels. Will it even be possible to reach USDA's current estimate of Canadian corn imports?

U.S. Treasury markets have been under relentless pressure on fears of a resurgence of inflation. At the same time, central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates with market debates having more to do with how many more cuts are coming instead of whether...

Friday's short-term guidance from the U.S. Treasury and IRS removed foreign used cooking oil (UCO) as an eligible feedstock for biofuel production while reaffirming canola oil's included status. Given limited soybean oil supplies, strong imports of the latter may need to grow...

With ending stocks in world exporting and importing countries at multi-year low levels, sellers should have the advantage.

You would never know it, given the price action, but Canadian canola ending stocks are expected to be the lowest since 2012-13 according to AAFC. The stocks could be lower yet if the market doesn't start discouraging demand soon.

Is it time for money to flow out of the overbought stock market and into cheap commodity markets once the new year rolls around?

Money managers seem reluctant to abandon their heavily net-short canola position, according to recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

U.S. Treasury markets suggesting evidence of inflation turning higher at a time when central banks around the world are cutting interest rates could make for difficult times ahead. Nothing so far indicates a derailment or a repeat of the 1970s inflation cycle.

Love them or hate them, participants other than those directly involved with a commodity use futures markets for various purposes. I believe it's better to know as much as you can about the elephants you're dancing with.

A final canola production estimate from Statistics Canada of 17.845 mmt should put the unsustainable pace of canola exports and domestic use back into focus. Other crops have increased breathing room.

Soybean oil export commitments in the first eight weeks of the marketing year now total 146% of the annual projection. Something clearly needs to change.

Barley ending stocks are flirting with 25-year lows, based on a production level that will likely be revised lower in December and an export estimate that should be increased given the current pace.

The unsustainable pace of canola exports and domestic use continues unabated -- yet Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada chose to ignore the situation. We better have a closer look.

Soybean oil with export commitments in the first month of the marketing year totaling 86% of the annual projection certainly justifies further investigation, especially given the implications for canola.

The message U.S. Treasury markets are trying to send us is still not certain, but the field of likely possibilities has narrowed. Recent developments suggest we better brush up on our 1970s inflation cycle history lesson.