Canada Markets

This week's USDA attache report on Canada Grain and Feed points includes a forecast for Canada's export potential that exceeds the current Canadian government estimate, while pointing to challenges expected over the upcoming crop year.

Canola's noncommercial long position has been sliding lower over 2022, while it is likely that this selling will soon end.

Statistics Canada shows the canola crush increasing for the first time in three months in June, likely on track to achieve the AAFC target of 8.3 mmt for 2021-22. Current forecasts for 2022-23 shows canola exports leading the recovery.

AAFC's July supply and demand tables include the latest official seeded acre estimates. Overall stocks of grain are to rebound from the record lows expected for 2021-22.

November canola closed lower for a third session, breaching certain support while respecting other levels of support. The noncommercial long position was reported to fall to its lowest level in two years as of July 12.

While grain stocks are normally tightening instore western terminals in the later weeks of the crop year, current grain stocks are seen rising.

The USDA estimates that the EU's biodiesel consumption rose to a record in 2021, while poised to remain flat in 2022. The use of rapeseed oil is to increase slightly in 2022, while its significance in the blend of feedstocks has waned over time.

Alberta's Crop Report as of July 12 shows the crop condition close to unchanged from two weeks earlier.

The Canadian dollar closed lower for a second straight week, while was able to uncover what may prove to be solid support.

The Saskatchewan government's crop condition ratings is used to create a crop condition index, with this index as of July 11 well above the same week in 2021 and also above average for this week.

The July WASDE report includes estimates that show a rebound in U.S. HRS production and imports while facing higher demand, leading to ending stocks forecast to reach the lowest in 15 years.

Supply and demand estimates for crops are a challenge early in the season, with the crop far from in the bin. Today's USDA WASDE estimates can be viewed as attractive for Canadian wheat if realized.

Demand for shipping grain normally tapers in the latter weeks of the crop year, although there are signs that this year could be different.

December spring wheat closed higher for the first time in four weeks, while we look to technical signs of a potential change in trend.

This study looks at export and import data for select crops and products for the month of May.

Statistics Canada revised their forecast for Canada's seeded acres on July 5, which saw wheat acres reach their highest level in nine years while canola acres are down from a year ago.

Crop development in Saskatchewan remains at a moderated pace after a slow start this spring.

While grain movement is expected to slow over the balance of the crop year as supplies tighten, the Ag Transport Coalition reports June 28 loads on wheels at the highest level seen in over two months.

New-crop European September milling wheat for its first higher close in eight sessions, holding above support, while the Sept/Dec spread strengthened this session and remains inverted.

November canola has bounced from retracement support to post sizeable gains over the past two sessions, paring losses realized over seven consecutive losing sessions.