Canada Markets

Here we look at Statistics Canada's Dec. 31 grain stocks estimates and what they mean for the supply-demand balance over the remainder of the crop year.

The USDA's attache report on Canada, the Grain and Feed Update, is viewed as increasingly bearish for Canada's wheat market.

Monday's March canola low bounced from trendline support on the continuous active chart, while closing above $450/mt. Over the past five years, the Dec. 31 stocks report has had only a modest effect on the nearby March future.

Canada has been exporting wheat to Australia since May and that country indicates this will continue.

December exports through licensed facilities fell from the previous month, as well as the same month in 2018, while cumulative licensed volumes are down more than 3 million tons from 2018-19 over the first five months of the crop year. The historical pace of movement could be...

Spring wheat for March delivery traded above the previous session's high in each of the past two sessions but struggled to sustain gains. Spring wheat prices are searching for chart support, while there is likely commercial and noncommercial selling weighing on prices.

Bulk dry pea exports through licensed facilities remain well ahead of 2018-19, but on par with the average pace. The pace of movement seen over the past two years could result in higher-than-forecast exports for 2019-20.

Week 24 commercial stocks of canola remain a bearish factor for prices, reported at a level that is up 33% from one year ago and 7% higher than the five-year average.

AAFC's January supply and demand tables contain a first look at the 2020-21 crop year. Here we look at the year-over-year changes seen in the forecast for seeded acres, exports and ending stocks.

Cold weather and a weaker Canadian dollar failed to prevent basis levels weakening over the past week for both spring wheat and canola, as seen in Saskatchewan Agriculture's weekly cash prices.

Currency traders sold the Canadian dollar after the Bank of Canada left the country's benchmark rate unchanged.

The continuous November weekly chart has shown recent consolidation, struggling at $500/metric ton, similar to the pattern of trade shown one year ago.

Trade issues are at the top of Canada's ag challenges as we enter 2020. Meanwhile, China's Meng Wanzhou extradition trial starts on Jan. 20 with some experts indicating it could take years to resolve.

Canadian wheat exports were light in week 23 at 100,500 metric tons, while the current pace is falling well short of meeting current government forecasts.

Barley prices remain firm due to the logistical challenges on the Prairies tied to bitter cold weather. The Dec. 31 stocks report will be of interest for barley market watchers.

Spring wheat has struggled to keep pace with soft red winter this week, while the HRS/HRW spreads, both cash and futures, have been weakening since September and point to waning demand for protein.

March oats have rallied 30 cents/bushel or 10.6% from the recent Dec. 26 low to Tuesday's close, leading the move across the grains.

The National Bulk Handling Corporation in India revised lower their estimates for summer or kharif pulse production in that country, placing a greater focus on rabi or winter production.

March canola closed higher for the fifth week in the past six weeks, ending above retracement resistance, with the nearby October high the next target.

The canola cash market shows signs of strength in early 2020, both in the country and on the West Coast.