Canada Markets

AAFC's latest supply and demand estimates were updated to include Statistics Canada's latest production estimates. This study looks at how this data has affected the forecast for demand and ending stocks, which are compared to 2021-22 and the five-year average.

Statistics Canada reserves the right to revise production estimates for a two-year period following the release of its November estimates, reported in early December. This study looks at the extent to which these revisions have been made during the past five years.

Canola continues to trade sideways overall while struggling to punch through chart resistance.

It is being reported that Ukraine's 2022-23 rapeseed exports have reached 2.9 mmt, already higher than the USDA's forecast for the entire crop year and above the country's five-year average, despite the challenges faced in the war with Russia.

This study looks at AG Transport Coalition data as it pertains to unfilled shipper demand on the Prairies, with a further look at railway cancellations and how this compares to each railway's past performance.

While lentil exports are expected at favorable levels, the price chart continues to show lower highs and the price is diverging from the average trend late in the year.

The March HRS contract bounced this week for a weekly close above $9/bu, a price level that has supported the March contract weekly close since July.

While the European Union is forecasting a sharp drop in rapeseed/canola imports in 2022-23, actual imports are running well-ahead of last year's pace.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported a huge surge in canola exports to China for October. A reported 46% of cumulative canola exports were destined for China over the first three months, the largest percentage seen in eight years.

Statistics Canada reports exports in the farm, fishing and intermediate food products reached a record $5.5 billion in October. This study looks at the October trade in select grains and grain products.

While Canada's canola production estimate was revised lower on Dec. 2, Australia's official canola estimate released Dec. 5 was revised higher, offsetting the lower revision seen for Canada. The ICE Canada future diverged from other markets to close higher.

Canada's principal field crop production is estimated as the third-highest ever but is revised lower this month from the previous estimate based on the August model data. Rationing of demand for some crops will be a feature this crop year.

January soybean oil posted a weak close on Nov. 30 although the monthly chart and the soybean oil forward curve continues to signal a bullish situation.

March hard red spring wheat closed lower for a third session on Nov. 29 although there is reason to believe that prices may be attempting to bottom.

Statistics Canada will update production estimates on Dec. 2. The provinces have arrived at lower yield estimates which bears watching when the official estimates include producer survey data for the first time.

Canada's week 16 durum exports is the largest seen this crop year with cumulative exports only slightly below the five-year average for this period. Statistics Canada's final production estimates, to be released on Dec. 2, will be watched closely.

Canada's canola crush reached the highest volume in 18 months in October, while the total crush over three months is slightly behind the year-ago pace. Statistics Canada data shows the oil content down from the same period in 2021-22 although this is expected to increase.

Grain unloads at Thunder Bay trail recent years, with railway performance and European demand just two of the factors at play.

February rapeseed has pushed through various levels of potential support this month but has found support above EUR 600/mt during the past three sessions and may signal an end to the move.

AAFC increased its forecast for Canada's wheat exports for a third consecutive month, while at 23.5 mmt, the Canadian government's forecast continues to remain behind the USDA's 26 mmt forecast.