Canada Markets

February Canola Crush Slows

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Statistics Canada reports 897,790 mt of canola crushed in February, the lowest volume in six months (blue bars). This volume remains above February 2023 (brown bar), the three-year average (green dashed line) and the volume needed this month to remain on track to reach the current AAFC forecast (black line). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Statistics Canada reported 897,790 metric tons (mt) of canola seed crushed in the month of February, the lowest monthly volume crushed since September or in six months. This volume is 10.6% higher than the same month in 2022-23 and 20.3% higher than the three-year average. It is also above the 830,978 mt needed this month to stay on track to reach AAFC's 10.5 million metric ton (mmt) crush forecast for 2023-24, as indicated by the black line on the attached graphic.

The cumulative crush of 6.412 mmt is up 12.4% from one year ago and 14% higher than the three-year average. It is also roughly 287,000 mt ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current 10.5 mmt crush demand forecast.

The February crush resulted in a 42.6% oil content according to government data, where it has been reported in three of the past four months. Since the beginning of the crop year (August), the average oil content is calculated at 42.4%, which compares to the 2022-23 average of 41.7% and the three-year average of 42.3%.

A ProphetX chart approximating the move in the ICE Canola Board Margin Index shows a mean index of $183.44/mt for February, which compares to $179/mt for the previous month, calculated using continuous active futures. The incentive to crush continues to remain high.

Statistics Canada reported soybean crush in February of 138,467 mt, the smallest monthly crush reported this crop year. This volume is down 2.8% from the same month in 2022-23 and 1.5% higher than the three-year average for this month. The cumulative crush of 913,157 mt after six months of the crop year is 2% higher than one year ago and .7% higher than the three-year average. The cumulative crush is ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC estimate of 1.750 mmt.

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