Canada Markets

The next official data release for Canada's crops will take place on May 7 when Statistics Canada releases their Stocks of principal field crops report as of March 31.

Social media posts on the social platform X are already pointing out the tight stocks expected for durum as of this date. Starting with Statistics Canada's 409,000-metric-ton ending stocks estimate for 2022-23 as of July 31, along with their estimate for 2023 production and the Canadian Grain Commission's week 35 estimates for cumulative exports and domestic use, March 31 stocks are calculated at 1.689 million metric tons (purple bar on the attached chart), down 21.9% from one year ago and down 41.6% from the five-year average (brown line) for this date.

According to Statistics Canada data, an estimate at this level would result in the smallest volume seen since 1989, or 35 years.

Prairie prices reported by pdqinfo.ca in the $400/mt range are near the lowest levels traded since July 2021, after seeing support in this range in 2022, 2023 and again in 2024.

In related news, the European Union has estimated 2024-25 production of durum at 6.7 mmt, down from 7 mmt in 2023-24. Use is forecast at 9.9 mmt, while ending stocks are forecast to fall sharply to 300,000 mt from 1.2 mmt in 2023-24, as reported by the International Grains Council.

DTN forecasts point to dry conditions for southern Europe, which bears watching. Official estimates from the French government shows the durum crop in France rated 70% good-to-excellent as of April 1, down 3 points from the previous estimate.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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