Canada Markets

A Look at Recent Government Estimates for Durum

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the sum of the estimated U.S. and Canada durum harvested acres, with the green bar the estimate for 2024, while measured against the primary vertical axis. The brown line with markers represents combined production based on average yields, while plotted against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Based on current government estimates on both sides of the Canada-United States border, harvested acres of durum in 2024 would reach 8.13 million acres (green bar on the attached chart), up 656,618 acres or 8.8% from the previous crop year. This is due to a 5.9% forecast increase in Canada's harvested acres and an estimated 19.3% for U.S. acres. Note that the harvested area for the Canadian Prairies is based on Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) estimate, while the U.S. harvested area is based on the five-year average relationship between seeded acres and harvested acres.

This calculation would lead to the highest area harvested in 16 years. Canada's seeded acres are estimated to be the largest area seeded in 24 years, while seeded acres in the U.S. are estimated at a level that would be the highest in six years.

Based on AAFC's prairie yield estimate for 2024, which is slightly above the five-year average, along with the five-year average yield in the U.S., total combined production would reach 7.642 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024-25 (brown line with markers), the highest in four years, while slightly more than 1 mmt higher than the five-year average.

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