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Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

More From This Author

  • In state-by-state numbers, North Dakota stands out as being severely behind its average planting progress for this time of year. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    The Haves and the Have Nots

    Although nationwide data makes it look as if row crop planting has been a breeze in the spring of 2020, there are localized spots where challenges have been insurmountable and are likely to result in outright acreage loss.

  • If $220 annual cash rent could be received for an acre of Iowa farmland forever, the present value could be calculated like a perpetuity, but that value is tremendously sensitive to your assumptions about the long-term discount rate. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Taking Interest in Interest Rate Effects on Ag Prices

    Lower interest rates typically imply higher justified asset prices, and now that interest rates are at record-low levels, their influence may be outweighing some of the COVID-19 bearishness.

  • When fear hits markets, overreactions can create negative bubbles. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Plague Year Price Patterns

    When fear hits markets, overreactions can create "negative bubbles." Market behavior from the long-ago history of previous plagues can be a guide for patterns now repeating in 2020.

  • Prior to the contract's expiration on April 21, the May crude oil futures contract traded at an intraday low of -$40.32 per barrel on April 20 and the spreads between nearby contracts went into contango. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Yes, Commodities Can Be Worth Less Than Nothing

    When futures traders are threatened with having to find storage capacity for physical commodities, we are now living in a world where negative commodity prices are no longer a theoretical impossibility.

  • The May corn chart reflects little change in price shortly after the WASDE report was released. (DTN ProphetX Chart)

    USDA Reports Review

    Grains and Soybeans Ignore Bearish Demand Data, Finish Higher

    The USDA/WASDE report for April 9 featured larger-than-expected increases on corn, soy and wheat ending stocks in the U.S. While global ending stocks were also bearish for wheat and corn, soy stocks fell a modest amount. The...

  • Corn at $3.35 per bushel, with 401,128 Btus (British thermal units) of energy content in each bushel, is worth $0.0008 per Btu. Meanwhile crude oil at $26 per barrel, with 5,705,000 Btus in each barrel, is currently worth only $0.0005 per Btu. (DTN ProphetX chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Energy Markets Spooked By 'Overpriced' Corn

    Valuing the energy content in the feedstocks used to create the fuel for U.S. gas pumps shows it's not corn that's overpriced compared to crude oil. Rather, crude oil is drastically underpriced during simultaneous demand and...

  • The process of getting ag commodities produced and into the hands of end users is a complex supply chain, with each link vulnerable to interruption. (Graphic by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Coronavirus Concerns: More Than Just Market Risk

    Rather than focusing only on how ag market prices have responded to the global COVID-19 pandemic, ag producers may also benefit from considering additional risks and how they might prepare for the coming weeks of potential...