Elaine Kub

Contributing Analyst
Elaine Kub

Elaine Kub is the author of Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made -- a 360-degree look at all aspects of grain trading, which draws on her experiences as a futures broker, market analyst, grain merchandiser, and farmer. She grew up on a family farm in South Dakota and holds an engineering degree and an MBA.

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  • When normalized over the past year, most commodities' price paths look eerily similar. (DTN ProphetX chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    The price gains seen for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, canola, oats and any other plantable commodity this spring are part of a broader phenomenon inflating most other commodity sectors at the same time.

  • Corn planting in the Southern U.S. has proceeded at a normal pace in 2021, with 60% of Texas' cornfields planted as of April 18, 2021. (Graphic by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    No matter how much the cash market may or may not be bidding for early delivered new-crop corn, the physical reality of a cold spring and cold soil have stymied plans to get the season started early.

  • The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows large regions plagued by expanding drought, some of which overlap with major wheat-producing regions. (USDA graphic)

    Kub's Den

    Wheat conditions highlight the "haves" and "have-nots" across America's crop fields this spring, with luscious green fields in the Midwest but very poor development in the drought-stricken West and High Plains.

  • Although there is no greater likelihood of "up" days than "down" days after a Grain Stocks report release, on average the movements do tend to be larger on March 31 than other report dates. (Illustration by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Since 1984, USDA has kept meticulous metadata about price reactions in agricultural markets after certain government report releases. This should reassure market participants there is no predictable pattern in market reactions.

  • Several times in past years (2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014), old-crop corn in the summer has been worth more than new-crop corn in the upcoming winter. The record high inversion happened in July 2013. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Past examples of wild old-crop-to-new-crop corn futures spreads make speculation tempting, but there are few other ways for a farmer, who's sold out of old-crop grain, to take advantage of the hot near-term prices.

  • More volatility in the futures markets makes an insurance company's calculations more uncertain, demanding higher premiums in 2021 than in recent years. (Chart by Elaine Kub)

    Kub's Den

    Before much is known about an upcoming row crop growing season, new-crop futures prices for corn tend to be less than $4, and for soybeans, less than $10 per bushel. But already for 2021, cognitive biases may be at work...

  • (DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

    DTN Before The Bell Livestock

    Eager buying interest is still present for lean hog futures at fresh contract highs Friday morning, and the cattle contracts are higher too.

  • (DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

    DTN Before The Bell Livestock

    The weekly export-sales report was generally disappointing for the beef and pork markets, but live cattle and lean hog futures traders have largely shrugged it off in favor of a mixed open.

  • (DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

    DTN Before The Bell Livestock

    Lean hog futures are still attracting enough buying interest to set fresh contract highs Wednesday morning, but cattle futures are moderately lower.

  • (DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

    DTN Before The Bell Livestock

    Livestock futures have started Tuesday morning mostly lower in anticipation of volatility in the feed grains sector, but there may be enough bullish momentum on the charts, and supportive fundamentals from meat prices, to prevent...

  • (DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

    DTN Before The Bell Livestock

    Monday morning live cattle futures are mixed, feeder cattle futures lower and lean hog futures are already setting new contract highs.