ShayLe Stewart

Monday helped reawaken the bullish nature of the cattle complex after the market's momentum was derailed by external pressures from the banking system.

We often view the grain markets as highly reactive to any weather changes, but the cattle contracts can be affected by weather developments, too.

Regardless of what the futures complex decides to do with the recent COF report, we know where the market's fundamentals sit; when it comes to buying and selling cattle, these fundamentals remain relevant.

With all that's happened during the last couple years to our economy, it's hard not to let our inner Chicken Little win sometimes. However, here's why cattle producers need to keep the market's long-term perspective in mind.

The biggest unknown variable in Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report lies in the placement data, with analysts' estimates ranging from 90% to 96.9%.

The biggest reason beef slaughter speeds have regressed is supply. With the U.S. possessing the fewest beef cows in the last 51 years, there are simply less cattle in the supply chain to feed and slaughter.

Friday's Feb. 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report is setting out to add yet more bullish fuel to the market's already blazing fire.

Regardless whether you're someone who looks to utilize placing a hedge on the futures market or managing your risk via a policy with a livestock risk protection (LRP) plan, it's important to know what these contracts are doing...

Over the last two months, we've slowly seen feedlots take on more of the marketing direction of the cash cattle market and slowly push trade out until Thursday or Friday of each week. This "market signal" tells packers feedlots...

What Tuesday's report clarified is that, not only do we have fewer beef cows in the industry than compared to years past, but also that we have the fewest beef cows ever recorded.

With beef cow processing as rapid as it was through 2022, I don't think it's out of line to anticipate that the January 2023 beef cow herd could be below 29 million head, which happened in 2014 and is the record low for the industry.

As of Jan. 1, 2023, there were 4.65 million head of heifers and heifer calves in feedlots across the U.S., which is 25,000 head fewer than a year ago.

Friday's USDA Jan. 1 Cattle on Feed report looks like it should come as a bullish charge to the complex.

Come the first full trading week of 2023, the cattle market didn't perform like it was expected to. The live cattle futures merely chopped sideways, boxed beef prices wilted, and the cash cattle market not only traded softer, but...

Now that the calendar has flipped the final page of 2022, what should we expect of the feeder cattle market in the early days of 2023?