Technically Speaking

After trading higher in late April and May, July contracts of both corn and wheat have fallen back the past two weeks, but it is Chicago wheat that may have stronger potential for technical support.

With last week's crop progress report indicating that corn was 83% planted as of Sunday, and slightly ahead of the 5-year average, there is no doubt that the U.S. corn crop is off to a favorable start. .

On May 24, July Chicago wheat closed near $7 for the first time since August 2023, helped by a number of weather surprises in early 2024.

On May 14, 2024, the U.S. initiated a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, always a touchy subject for the soybean market. Traders might be wondering about retaliation from China; but so far, soybean prices are showing no concern.

Just since April 18, Kansas City July wheat has surged $1.20, fueled by several frost/freeze events in key Russian wheat areas with another report of frost over the weekend.

The corn planting season is here and challenges are already emerging as the rains keep coming. December corn prices turned higher and we have to wonder how much potential there may be for more gains ahead.

Kansas City new-crop wheat meandered within a 40-cent range for two consecutive months and appeared to have little chance of a breakout of that sideways pattern. That is until just eight days ago. Since then, the rally has not paused. Ultra-short-managed money funds and...

While the top two U.S. soybean competitors are both harvesting soybeans, November soybean prices are only showing limited bearish pressure in April. Is something more going on?

Brazil's safrinha corn crop is about to enter its dry season, but so far, corn prices are not showing concern for smaller supplies either in the U.S. or in Brazil.

With wheat markets universally under severe pressure for the last year or more, it would be going out on a fragile limb to even think about predicting a turnaround. However, wheat in general, and KC wheat in particular, is showing some subtle signs the worst could be over.

Just as the new highs in cash soybean prices above $16.47 ultimately lost support in June 2022, the new lows in February 2024 may suffer the same fate.

Wheat, for months, has been beaten down by aggressive Russian and Ukrainian exports. While Russian values appear to be firming a bit, there seems to be another change that could impact their ability to export. Following last weekend's Ukraine attack on a Russian oil facility and...

December 2023 corn bounced up from a low of $4.47 on Nov. 29, 2023, and December 2024 corn bounced up from a low of $4.46 on Feb. 26, 2024. I discuss the possibility of a double-bottom in new-crop corn.

May soybeans made a nice move to end last week. Following a mostly neutral March WASDE report with respect to U.S. soybeans, May soybeans rose sharply to end the week, rising above the 20-day moving average for the first time since December. Given credit for the strength...

Spot soybean oil prices are testing long-term support near 45 cents at a time when the moods for corn, soybean and wheat prices remain bearish. Can the half-off sale in bean oil generate demand a second time?

Corn has plummeted in the last several weeks with speculative funds adding to what is already a record net-short position in corn. Even as corn export sales are running ahead of USDA's projection and South American production estimates are falling below those of the USDA...

Spot corn prices experienced a similar sharp drop in 2013 and 2014, giving us a hint of what to look for in 2024.

Soybean oil, along with soybeans and soymeal, has been in a downtrending pattern since July 2023. In the past week, nearby bean oil futures closed higher Monday through Thursday before ending the streak with a setback Friday. However, for the week, both March and May bean oil...

July contracts of corn and soybeans are off to a bearish start in 2024 and, although cheap, have yet to find support.

For the first time since June, March soybean futures broke under the $12.00 level. Even though there is plenty of growing weather yet to endure in Argentina, the Brazilian soy harvest is likely 10% to 11% done as of Monday. Although early yields have disappointed, Brazil's soybean...