Technically Speaking

Back on March 18, 2024, this blog asked the question, "Is New-Crop Corn Finding Long-Term Support? Read that again here: https://www.dtnpf.com/… . Since that time, December corn encountered selling in April, but could get no lower than $4.59 1/2, staying well above the Feb. 26 low of $4.46. On Friday, May 3, December corn ended the week up 9 1/4 cents at $4.82 3/4, the highest close in over three months and back above the 100-day average for the first time since December.

Fundamentally, corn prices are currently being helped by wet conditions in the U.S., interrupting planting progress with more rain expected in the week ahead. At the same time, Brazil's safrinha corn crop is enduring hot and dry conditions that are not expected to change anytime soon and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange recently dropped its production estimate for Argentina to 46.5 million metric tons (mmt) (1.83 billion bushels), hurt by wet conditions and leafhoppers.

Friday's CFTC report for April 30 showed noncommercial shorts in corn have bought back over 121,000 contracts since the February low with specs still holding 143,424 contracts net short. New spring weather concerns are shaking off the pessimism of a bearish winter. Just how long this bullish change can last and how far prices can go remains to be seen and depends largely on weather. For the moment, the trend in December corn is up.

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Comments above are for educational purposes only and are not meant as specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of commodities, futures or options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com .

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