Fundamentally Speaking

Despite ongoing global trade tensions, a lack of buying from China, and stiff competition from Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina, U.S. corn exports this year have held up rather well.

Earlier this month the USDA in its April WASDE report raised this year's projected export figure by 100 million bushels (mb) reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices.

Now pegged at 2.550 billion bushels (bb), this would be the second highest figure ever next to the 2.747 bb shipped in the 2020-21 season.

Along these lines this chart shows U.S. corn export sales and shipments in mb as of the third week of April on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis are those figures as a percent of the USDA's April WASDE estimates.

The figures in the green rectangles are the percentage change in exports from the April WASDE to the final estimate.

Through last Thursday's export sales report, total sales are 2.272 bb which is 25.6% ahead of the year ago total and 89.1% of the April WASDE projection of 2.550 bb, which is well above the 2000-2024 average of 83.5% sold by this point in the marketing year.

Meanwhile total shipments are 1.582 bb which is 26.2% ahead of the year ago total and 62.0% of the April WASDE projection, above the 2000-2024 average of 59.1% shipped by this point in the marketing year and the highest amount shipped ever as of third week in April.

At this point, projecting where final sales end up will be challenging given the ongoing global trade tensions though corn has a lower percent of total production exported than soybeans or wheat.

Also, ideas that U.S. corn output will be substantially higher this year than last may prompt overseas buyers to hold off on further purchases given ideas a large to record crop will put more pressure on values especially if the pace of plantings maintains a near normal trajectory.

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