Fundamentally Speaking

Last week the USDA kept its estimate for the 2025 corn yield at 181.0 bushels per acre (bpa) in the July WASDE report, but based on the lofty crop ratings for this time of year and assuming continued good weather through much of the Corn Belt, it is likely that the USDA will further increase its record yield projection in next month's first crop production report.

This graphic shows the USDA's week 28 (around the middle of July) national corn condition for the period 1987-2025 on the right-hand axis.

We use our usual ratings system where we weigh the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results.

Reported on the left-hand axis is the percent that the week 28 ratings deviate from the 1987-2024 trend yield using both the August and final U.S. yield projections.

This year's week 28 rating of 770 is the highest since 2016 and the third best since 2004.

Going back to 1987, this year's rating is one of eight where crop ratings as of the middle of July were at the 770 level or higher.

The other seven years all had final yields above trend, often remarkably so such as in 1987, 1994 and 2004.

Those seasons had even higher week 28 conditions, especially 1987 and 1994, where ratings were over 820.

Using a regression analysis for the relation between week 28 ratings and the percent the USDA's August yield projections deviate from the 1987-2024 trend, this year's 770 rating calculates to a yield 3.7% above trend.

The question is what to use, as trend for this year's linear trend using the 1987-2024 data calculates to 184 bpa and even the 25-year trend is 182.

Perhaps using the current USDA weather adjusted yield of 181 may be a good starting point and if so, then the 2025 yield could be as high as 187.7 bpa.

Using the final yield percent deviations works out to 4% above trend, or 188.2 bpa.

Note the R square using the August yield deviations is 82% while the R square for the final yield deviations is 68% as the August yield estimate is based on crop conditions earlier in the season than those used for the final crop yield estimate in January where the crop is fully mature and lab results of ear populations and ear weights are available.

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