Canada Markets

The USDA's first spring wheat condition rating for 2020 is compared to the 10-year average for the six states monitored and the three major producing states, while looking at how emergence compares to normal.

Terminal elevator unloads were reported sharply higher in week 42, partially due to data that was revised by the CGC. Terminal space remains favorable, as does primary elevator space on the Prairies.

AAFC increased its forecast for 2019-20 canola exports this month to 9.6 million metric tons, while there remains a case for even higher volumes shipped.

December spring wheat futures, along with December corn and November soybeans, are all testing their respective 50-day moving average. Spring wheat faces various levels of resistance, while a record noncommercial net-short futures position could lead to a sudden change in...

July canola failed at technical resistance on May 27, while the court decision against Meng Wanzhou is expected to add to Canada-China tensions, which may have sparked selling.

Here we look at Statistics Canada's crop receipt data for the first quarter of 2020, while considering the change in trend when cannabis receipts are removed from the totals.

Speculation exists as to where China will turn for barley. Canada's week 41 volume shipped was the highest volume shipped in 22 weeks, while AAFC lowered its forecast for Canada's potential this month.

Alberta planting progress jumped ahead in the week ending May 19, with more than 40% of all crops seeded over the week, a larger area than reported in the same week during the past five years. Planting of most crops is ahead of or close to their respective average pace.

An aggressive planting pace in Saskatchewan has resulted in the estimated acres seeded equal to the five-year average pace, well ahead of the 10-year average. Only two of six regions are ahead of their respective average with planting of crops such as lentils and durum ahead...

New-crop August rapeseed closed above resistance on May 20, reaching its highest level in over 10 weeks. Crop yield estimates are being revised lower, while pointing to the need for continued imports during the crop year ahead.

New-crop November canola has closed higher for a 10th session, reaching its highest level in more than five weeks. Commercial traders continue to hold a bullish net-long position, while noncommercial traders are slowly paring their net-short position.

Canada's combined wheat and durum exports approached 1 million metric tons in week 40, while terminal stocks of durum remain well above average as of this week.

Saskatchewan's seeding progress is off to a slower start, but we've been this before. Low temperatures similar to last year have been experienced, while there has been a significant year-over-year improvement in topsoil moisture ratings.

USDA's global wheat stocks estimate reached over 200 million metric tons (mmt) in 2009-10 while on May 12 were estimated at over 300 mmt for the 2020-21 crop year. Growth in China's stocks over this period were behind this move.

Across the prairies, No. 1 CWRS prices are nearing a crop-year high at the same time that DTN analysis is pointing to spring wheat's bullish potential.

March 31 grain stocks data may be viewed as questionable as the survey period was cut short and the number of responses were lower than normal. We look at the trend in the relationship in commercial stocks as a percentage of total estimated stocks for possible signals.

Statistics Canada's March seeding intentions data was collected under challenging conditions, while the survey period was cut short and responses were lower than normal. It provides a starting point, while we look forward to the June results.

The Canadian dollar exchange with the U.S. dollar has struggled at its highs reached in April, and has broken through various levels of support this week. Investors now hold close to the largest bearish position in the Canadian dollar seen in almost one year.

March Statistics Canada trade data saw ag commodity exports surge, largely due to the recovery in movement due to the February rail blockades. Each month, we look at miscellaneous export data for commodities and products that aren't captured in weekly CGC data.

Ahead of this week's planting intentions data to be released by Statistics Canada late due to COVID-19 challenges, we look at how the March intentions data tends to change when compared to Statistics Canada's final estimates.