Canada Markets

While trade rumblings point to the need to ration canola stocks over the balance of the year, cumulative exports are up close to 40% from last year with no sign of slowing.

In the oilseed markets, old-crop supply issues have dominated, with old-crop cash and futures rising quicker when compared to new-crop prices.

While soybean oil, palm oil and canola have reached contract highs this week, rapeseed finally broke out higher from a sideways range traded this month but remains below contract highs. Import supplies from Ukraine may be nearing an end.

The Canadian dollar continues to rally, moving counter to its normal move late in the year. Little chart resistance is seen to prevent a continued move higher.

The recent Canada Food Price Report, widely covered by media, contained questionable wheat data that led to a response by industry.

Producers have delivered 26.191 million metric tons of all major crops into the licensed handling system as of week 18, 22% higher than average. Week 18 deliveries were close to the largest in nine weeks while 22% higher than average.

This month's December WASDE report included a higher estimate for global wheat production, but demand rose by a higher amount, leading to a surprise drop in global ending stocks although is still a record. Canada is in the running for the country shipping the second largest...

March oat futures have reached a fresh contract high in each of the past three sessions this week.

March spring wheat futures broke below support on Tuesday, with bearish signals coming from the commercial and noncommercial sides of the market.

The percentage calculated (total disappearance plus commercial stocks as a percentage of estimated supplies) is calculated to make comparisons to prior years and provide a hint to how long supplies will last.

Here we look at Statistics Canada's October trade data for a number of smaller crops and related products.

Statistics Canada updated Canada's crop production estimates on Dec. 3, based on November producer surveys. The biggest news was the canola estimate, which was revised sharply lower from September.

Canola futures have fared better than competing oilseeds this week and basis has shown signs of strength, just ahead of this week's Statistics Canada production estimates on Dec. 3.

March spring wheat futures have pushed through various levels of support in the past two days, while have potentially found a bottom at the 67% retracement of the move from the August low to October high.

Two trends with respect to grain shipping remain a concern -- the falling percentage of cars ordered that are spotted in the week wanted for loading, along with the growing count of cars that are cancelled.

Both domestic milling and exports of Canadian durum are moving ahead of last year and the average pace, while commercial stocks remain higher than average. Some prairie bids are back above $300/mt this week.

Ahead of Statistics Canada's final production estimates on Dec. 3, we look at final provincial estimates as they relate to the current official estimates, as well as the 10-year, 20-year and 30-year trends.

We look at the 2019 and the historical average percent change between Statistics Canada's August model-based crop production estimates and the final estimates released in December. Based on the averages, final production estimates for most crops tend to be higher or show...

Statistics Canada reports a record monthly volume of canola crushed in October while the Canadian Canola Board Margin Index continues to support an active crush.

For some of Canada's largest crops, AAFC's Nov. demand estimates were not revised to reflect the current pace of exports during the first 15 weeks of the crop year.