Canada Markets

Soybean oil export commitments to date have only been exceeded twice in history. Both of those times resulted in final exports greater than 3.2 billion pounds compared to the USDA's initial estimate for 2024-25 of 600 million pounds. A closer inspection is certainly justified.

The soybean-corn price ratio is sending a clear signal to expect a switch from soybean acres to corn, but what about after the Prospective Plantings report? And is there a chance for a bullish surprise regardless?

A rushed announcement over the weekend ahead of a Canadian election call indicated the Liberal Government plans to deal with the Chinese tariff dispute by giving themselves an excuse to not deal with it.

The price you pay for record-high values is the anxiety and volatility that inevitably goes with them. That is one situation where technical analysis helped immensely.

The most important underlying corn fundamentals of exceptional demand have not changed, just anxiety over them has. If the political landscape calms, will investors buy back into corn the way they had previously?

With ending stocks in world exporting countries at multi-year low levels, thanks to increased domestic use amid lower production, prices should find solid underlying support.

The surprise moves by China to pick now to retaliate against tariffs announced six months ago by the Trudeau government brings up as many questions about the timing and motivation as it does about the impact.

With it becoming increasingly clear that there is nothing Canada do to alter tariff decisions made by U.S. President Trump, it may be time to identify alternatives for unwanted exports.

Soybean oil exports for 2024-25 are almost certainly going to be revised higher given that total commitments in the first five months of the marketing year now exceed USDA's annual projection.

Not only did the 2025-26 soybean ending stocks estimate come in lower than expected, but it was based on questionable yield assumptions. More realistic yields could be quite problematic.

It appears that optimism about the new United States administration's potential is being replaced by anxiety about unintended consequences of the speed at which changes are being introduced.

Feed grain consumers in Western Canada will take no comfort in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's February update with cuts in feed use needed across the board.

The Canadian International Merchandise Trade data for December provided a glimpse into the most likely path forward for canola exports for the remainder of the marketing year now that China steps away.

Hotter-than-expected January CPI and PPI data suggest the inflation relief seen during the last few years is over and the recent turn higher is eerily similar to what occurred in the 1970s.

The price you pay for record high values is the anxiety and volatility that inevitably goes with them. That is one situation where technical analysis helps, so let's have a look.

The weekly U.S. export sales report confirmed interest in corn hasn't slowed, suggesting the USDA estimates are far too conservative. With ending stocks in world exporting and importing countries at multi-year low levels -- more of the same could be expected.

With March canola only falling $14.10/metric ton (mt) on the news of 25% tariffs applying to canola and its products, then closing higher on a Mexican tariff pause with one for Canada still unclear at the time of the markets close, the bulls should be optimistic.

With likely the last remaining wheat bull put out to pasture during Monday's selloff, the market looks like it's about ready to join the corn rally.

Some in the industry point to the rapid expansion of the money manager net-long position as a sign that the move in corn is already close to the end, after barely starting. That clearly may not be the case.

The end results will somehow differ, but the trends found in AAFC's first look at 2025-26 canola are quite disturbing. The market has failed in its primary function to send proper signals to producers and consumers to encourage or discourage supply or demand.