Canada Markets

Canola futures surged to a higher close on March 16 while ProphetX data shows the price of Australian canola falling at a faster rate than canola in the Chinese market.

CFTC data as of Feb. 28 shows noncommercial traders adding to their combined net-short position of hard red spring wheat, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat.

Today's lower close for canola was an eighth consecutive lower close for the May contract, while the continuous active weekly chart shows a breach of a September low resulting in a breakout from a sideways range traded since June 2022.

Demand for hopper cars for loading was light in week 31 while a spring high is seen in week 39 according to the three-year average. Canada's two major railways continue to spot well below the number of cars wanted during the week wanted.

Canada's January soybean exports are reported at the lowest level seen in four months while cumulative exports are well ahead of the 2021-22 pace and the average pace of movement.

Canada exported 808,123 mt of durum in January. Exports volumes to the largest buyers are up, while shipments are seen to an increased list of importing nations.

USDA revised their global rapeseed/canola production estimate higher this month, while their consumption estimate is being ratcheted higher at a slower pace.

The Canadian dollar has recently sent bearish signals, while the March 7 move resulted in the largest one-day drop in over four months against the United States dollar.

Commercial canola inventory as of week 30 is reported at the lowest for this week in nine years, while this volume tends to trend lower through the balance of the crop year.

Prairie lentil bids were reported higher this week, while hot and dry conditions forecast for India is on the radar.

The Canadian Grain Commission's January Exports of Canadian Grain and Wheat Flour report shows a substantial increase in both volumes exported and the number of countries shipped to for several crops.

December 2023 MGEX spring wheat is reaching contract lows this week while holding just above 2022 lows.

This study looks at canola exports as of week 29 and how they relate to the current government forecast.

Canola diverged from losses realized in soybeans and soybean oil on Feb. 27 to close higher, despite Canadian dollar strength against the USD. Canola remains viewed as inexpensive relative to soybean oil, which may remain a supportive feature.

Canada's January canola crush was the third highest of the 2022-23 crop year, ahead of the steady pace needed to reach AAFC's current 9.5 mmt crush forecast.

The Canadian dollar broke below chart support on Feb. 22, which could lead to a continued move to December lows.

The most noticeable revision in AAFC's February supply and demand estimates was a sharp reduction in their forecast for Canada's flax exports in 2022-23, which could have significant implications for seeded acres in 2023.

Week 28 barley exports are shown to jump higher, while the cumulative volume moved is ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current export forecast.

The weekly price of 2 CW oats reported by Saskatchewan is nearing a test of the harvest low, while there may be little to prevent a continued move lower.

This study looks at the trend in combined Canada-U.S. wheat stocks over time.