Canada Markets

Today's blog looks at the historical change in the seeded acre forecast for select crops from the unofficial estimates released on January to the March intentions report, along with the change in forecast from the March report to the final acres reported in Statistics Canada...

Recent weakness in canola futures has been accompanied by weakness in the track basis reported by the ICE Exchange.

Today's AMIS Market Monitor release shows both AMIS and the IGC forecasting a year-over-year increase in global wheat stocks for 2022-23, while the USDA's March forecast includes a drop in stocks.

Statistics Canada released February merchandise trade data on April 5, while this study looks at the month's activity for select crops and products.

While the USDA has estimated hard red spring wheat acres to fall to the lowest in decades, early unofficial forecasts from Canada's government shows an increase in acres offsetting acres lost in the U.S. forecast.

Canola oil as a feedstock for U.S. biofuel production is showing significant growth from year to year and month to month, while we are in early stages of planned expansion.

Weekly wheat exports (excluding durum), have exceeded the weekly volume needed to reach the current AAFC export forecast for 2022-23 for five consecutive weeks.

Large green lentils and red lentils reached a crop year high over the week ending March 29.

This study looks at the daily move in the July and November canola contracts following the release of the USDA's March Quarterly Stocks report and Prospective Planting reports during the past 15 years.

Ahead of this week's USDA reports, new-crop MGEX spring wheat futures are seen moving above resistance.

Statistics Canada reported the February canola crush at a volume that was the lowest reported in five months, despite wide crush margins, while the cumulative pace is ahead of the pace needed to reach the current AAFC demand forecast.

This study looks at cumulative licensed exports for select crops as of week 33, while projects crop year exports based on the historical pace of movement.

Soybean oil for May delivery has faced a sharp drop this week, breaching potential support levels.

The May canola contract open interest is the highest ever for this week and trade during the month ahead could prove volatile.

Canada's Consumer Price Index fell more than expected in February, while food inflation, particularly food purchased in grocery stores, remains stubbornly high.

As we near the start of the 2023 shipping season in Thunder Bay, grain stocks in licensed storage are seen below average.

This study looks at deliveries of select crops into licensed facilities over 32 weeks, along with how this compares to the volume of grain available for delivery for this crop year and on average over the past five years.

Canola futures surged to a higher close on March 16 while ProphetX data shows the price of Australian canola falling at a faster rate than canola in the Chinese market.

CFTC data as of Feb. 28 shows noncommercial traders adding to their combined net-short position of hard red spring wheat, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat.

Today's lower close for canola was an eighth consecutive lower close for the May contract, while the continuous active weekly chart shows a breach of a September low resulting in a breakout from a sideways range traded since June 2022.