Canada Markets

While the European Union is forecasting a sharp drop in rapeseed/canola imports in 2022-23, actual imports are running well-ahead of last year's pace.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported a huge surge in canola exports to China for October. A reported 46% of cumulative canola exports were destined for China over the first three months, the largest percentage seen in eight years.

Statistics Canada reports exports in the farm, fishing and intermediate food products reached a record $5.5 billion in October. This study looks at the October trade in select grains and grain products.

While Canada's canola production estimate was revised lower on Dec. 2, Australia's official canola estimate released Dec. 5 was revised higher, offsetting the lower revision seen for Canada. The ICE Canada future diverged from other markets to close higher.

Canada's principal field crop production is estimated as the third-highest ever but is revised lower this month from the previous estimate based on the August model data. Rationing of demand for some crops will be a feature this crop year.

January soybean oil posted a weak close on Nov. 30 although the monthly chart and the soybean oil forward curve continues to signal a bullish situation.

March hard red spring wheat closed lower for a third session on Nov. 29 although there is reason to believe that prices may be attempting to bottom.

Statistics Canada will update production estimates on Dec. 2. The provinces have arrived at lower yield estimates which bears watching when the official estimates include producer survey data for the first time.

Canada's week 16 durum exports is the largest seen this crop year with cumulative exports only slightly below the five-year average for this period. Statistics Canada's final production estimates, to be released on Dec. 2, will be watched closely.

Canada's canola crush reached the highest volume in 18 months in October, while the total crush over three months is slightly behind the year-ago pace. Statistics Canada data shows the oil content down from the same period in 2021-22 although this is expected to increase.

Grain unloads at Thunder Bay trail recent years, with railway performance and European demand just two of the factors at play.

February rapeseed has pushed through various levels of potential support this month but has found support above EUR 600/mt during the past three sessions and may signal an end to the move.

AAFC increased its forecast for Canada's wheat exports for a third consecutive month, while at 23.5 mmt, the Canadian government's forecast continues to remain behind the USDA's 26 mmt forecast.

This study looks at licensed deliveries of select crops during the first 15 weeks of 2022-23, comparing these volumes to recent years while calculating these volumes as a percentage of the grain available for delivery based on current estimates.

The continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement was widely expected, but led to weakness in North American wheat trade while European milling wheat ended higher.

Technical signals indicate that the Canadian dollar's recent rally may have ended.

This study looks at the AG Transport Coalition data comparing demand for hopper cars for loading to the cars supplied, while by shipping corridor.

Noncommercial traders in canola are seen moving close to moving back to a bullish net-long position, while at a time when prices are near the highest levels in 20 weeks.

The USDA revised its global production forecast for canola/rapeseed to a record high this month while global ending stocks were revised lower. The global stocks/use ratio is forecast to diverge sharply from the ratio calculated for Canada.

Week 13 producer deliveries of canola were the lowest seen in seven weeks. Cumulative deliveries trail the previous year and the three-year average.