Canada Markets

July canola bounced from a fresh low to end back above $700/mt on Tuesday in high volume trade.

Barley exports tend to slow during the final weeks of the crop year, while Australia is making inroads into China and December corn closed under $5/bushel. The southern Albera market will play a greater role in price discovery during the year ahead.

During the week ending May 15, producers planted 29% of the province's crop, with the most progress seen on the west side of the province. An estimated 38% of the crop is seeded, still below the five-year average of 53%.

The USDA's first estimate for 2023-24 global soybean production shows a 410.585 million metric ton (mmt) crop grown world-wide, up 11% or 40.164 mmt from the previous crop year, as indicated by the brown line on the attached chart.

The July MGEX hard red spring wheat contract has closed higher for three consecutive sessions and has breached technical resistance in each of the past two sessions.

The USDA has forecast global wheat stocks to fall in 2023-24 for a fourth consecutive year, while the tendency is for the first estimate for any given crop year to be overstated.

Seasonality factors are contributing to the slowing demand for hopper cars for loading on the prairies, although one CN executive indicates this trend could continue through to new crop.

Canola stocks as of March 31 are up from the year-ago level but well-below average for a third year and signal problems due to the current pace of demand.

Statistics Canada released March 31 grain stocks estimates Tuesday, which included a revised methodology for estimating farm stocks.

Estimates for the area seeded in Alberta as of May 2 point to the slowest start since 2018.

The high for December hard red spring wheat on May 5 has tested the 50% retracement of the move from the April high to the May low. The latest week's CFTC data shows noncommercial traders adding to their bearish positions, although late-week trade points to a sudden change...

March Statistics Canada merchandise trade data points to an overall drop in exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products. Here we look at monthly trade data as it relates to miscellaneous crops and crop products.

The continuous December HRS-HRW spread is seen consolidating and is trading at a level that is below average for this date. A number of factors are at play, but an above-average Canadian spring wheat acreage forecast for 2023 may be easing concerns.

The CGC reported favourable durum exports for week 38, which were the highest in five weeks and the fifth highest seen this crop year.

November canola is testing support and at a crossroads.

This study looks at prospective ending stocks for Canadian wheat (excluding durum) given a matrix of seeded acres and yield, based on current AAFC assumptions for 2022-23 carryout, demand and harvested acres.

Statistics Canada reported a huge canola crush above 900,000 mt for the month of March, the largest in two years.

Statistics Canada reports all-wheat acres rising to the highest area since 2001, while canola acres are forecast up only slightly from 2022. Here is a summary of today's report.

A significant move in the new-crop November contract is not common following Statistics Canada's first acreage estimates of the season, although one only has to look back one year for the last time this happened.

This month's AAFC forecast includes a higher revision for wheat exports in 2022-23 and a lower revision for canola exports.