South America Calling

Eyes have been on the start to the wet season in central Brazil. What looked to be a possible early start last week does not look that way anymore.

Rainfall has been increasing across Argentina and southern Brazil during the last couple of weeks. The start to the wet season in central Brazil usually comes at the end of September. The European model is suggesting it may start earlier.

A couple of storm systems have brought some needed rains to Argentina and southern Brazil during the last week. More systems appear to do the same during the next week.

A front moved through northern Argentina and southern Brazil this week with good rainfall, but the rest of both countries need to start seeing more rain.

Two late-winter frontal boundaries will spread some showers and cooler conditions back through the southern half of South America during the next seven to 10 days.

The expectation of La Nina to be in place for this spring could be a concern again for corn and soybeans in Argentina and Brazil.

The third round of frosts in the last month is the coldest with temperatures falling below the freezing mark in portions of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais -- areas where coffee, citrus, and sugarcane are more heavily farmed. Damage to these crops may be extensive.

Myriad weather challenges has filled out the second season (safrinha) corn crop from start to end. As more of the damaged crop is harvested, producers in Brazil will likely welcome the end of the season and prepare for the new soybean season.

Frosts that have already caused damage two weeks ago are set to return to southern Brazil early next week. Areas that escaped the damage on the first round may not on the second.

Frosts from last week and persistent dry weather continue to drive corn production estimates lower across Brazil.

Cold temperatures noted across much of Argentina and Brazil produced frosty morning temperatures which may have hurt filling corn in southern Brazil. Temperatures will rise through the next week, with above normal temperatures by next week.

A strong front will move through Argentina and southern Brazil with rapidly falling temperatures. A few frosty mornings could be on tap, which would be a concern for corn across southern Brazil.

Despite little shower activity during recent weeks, soil moisture for developing winter wheat has remained quite good in Argentina and portions of southern Brazil.

Drought has continued to stress and damage corn in central Brazil. A stalled front will offer some limited precipitation chances during the next week but will not provide much benefit.

Rains continue over northern Argentina and southern Brazil, good for some wheat and southern safrinha corn areas. Dryness continues to stress and damage crops across central Brazil.

Some isolated showers fell over southern portions of central Brazil last week, but amounts were not enough to reverse the declining yields. Precipitation over southern Brazil has been and is forecast to continue to have a more positive impact for corn. Argentina is doing better...

Heat and dryness across central Brazil continue to lower yield prospects. There could be signs of some stabilizing rains with a couple of frontal boundaries this coming weekend into next week; but downward trends in crop prospects continue.

Soil moisture continues to decline in Brazil safrinha corn areas ahead of pollination.

Dry weather during the last two months is wilting the safrinha corn crop in central Brazil. There are no signals to the contrary in the forecast.

Dry forecasts continue to imply poor growing conditions continuing for safrinha corn in Brazil through pollination and grain fill.