Canada Markets

The crop condition index for Saskatchewan crops have slid lower during the past two weeks on continued hot and dry conditions.

While focus remains on the potential for North American spring wheat, there are also some bullish signs in global wheat markets.

Despite a forecast for grain ending stocks to fall significantly in 2020-21, commercial stocks in primary elevators are higher than 2020 and the three-year average as of week 50.

Despite shrinking canola stocks, the June canola crush volume was up from the previous month and higher than the three-year average.

November canola finished higher for a third straight session on July 26, achieving its largest one-day move in nine sessions while nearing another test of $900/mt. An upside breakout from its current consolidation pattern could lead to a sharp move higher.

November canola finished higher for a third straight session on July 26, achieving its largest one-day move in nine sessions while nearing another test of $900/mt. An upside breakout from its current consolidation pattern could lead to a sharp move higher.

This study looks at Canada's largest export targets for select crops and how volumes have increased in 2020-21.

Improvements have been seen in rail movement of grain to the West Cost, although both railways remain on alert as British Columbia declares a state of emergency due to wildfires. Experts say this situation could last six to seven more weeks.

AAFC's July supply and demand estimates tweaked 2020-21 demand for a few crops, while making adjustments based on Statistics Canada's most recent seeded acre estimates. Yields for most crops remain relatively close to June estimates.

Declining crop conditions seen for many crops in the U.S. could be a preview of what is to come on the Prairies, while a smaller crop in both countries will lead to some changes in the directional flow of grain in 2021-22.

The Canadian dollar lost 96 basis points last week and a further 95 basis points on July 19, moving towards a test of 2021 lows.

The hard red spring wheat/hard red winter wheat spread is viewed as a proxy for the demand for protein wheat. Current spreads are close to testing long-term highs.

Saskatchewan Agriculture's bi-weekly crop condition ratings include the effects of the extreme heat in early July. There are wide spreads in results across the six regions of the province.

Canada supplies by far the largest share of the global canola exported each year. Competing vegetable oils will limit canola's upside potential and the balance sheet shows no reason for panic, although USDA's estimates for July have yet to account for the harsh conditions facing...

Rail movement to the West Coast has been interrupted due to fires in recent weeks, while Canada's federal government has announced additional initiatives that will further slow movement in areas where fire risk danger is high across the country.

The USDA released the first production estimates for hard red spring wheat production in the U.S. on July 12, which led to spring wheat futures leading the other grains higher for the session. Official estimates for Statistics Canada will not be released until Aug. 30.

North American crop conditions for durum are seen worsening while prices are moving higher. Europe is forecast to achieve increased production in 2021 although prices are moving higher during harvest.

Saskatchewan Agriculture's weekly crop report as of July 5 includes most of the extreme heat event that hit the Prairies last week.

While stocks of grain are forecast to fall for most crops in 2020-21, stocks in commercial storage remain higher than would be expected late in the crop year.

After reaching an all-time high on the continuous November chart on July 2, November canola has sunk $69.50/mt although is faring well relative to the soy complex.