Fundamentally Speaking

Percent change in USDA's U.S. corn yield estimate from the October to the January crop production reports vs. percent of the U.S. corn crop harvested by week 44 and the percent of the U.S. corn crop planted by May 20.

First fall, last fall and first spring USDA rating of U.S. winter wheat conditions vs. the percent that the USDA's May yield estimate deviates from the 30 year trend of the USDA's final winter wheat estimate

Amount of U.S. soybeans shipped and sold as of the second week of October as a percentage of USDA's October WASDE export projection vs. change in U.S. soybean exports from that WASDE forecast to the actual final figure for that marketing year

Scatterplot of week 41 U.S. corn crop conditions vs the percent that yields deviated from the 35-year trend

Amount of U.S. corn shipped and sold as of the second week of October as a percentage of the USDA's October WASDE export projection vs. change in U.S. corn exports from that WASDE forecast to the end of the marketing year

Days after October 1 50%, 70% and then 90% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested vs. the change in the U.S. corn yield in bushels per acre (bpa) from the October to the January crop production report.

Weighted number of soybean pods per 18 square foot area vs. the implied pod weight (grams/pod) and the weighted soybean yield for 11 objective soybean states.

Change in USDA's old crop feed/residual usage and ending stocks from the September to the October WASDE reports

USDA September 2019, final 2018 and 30 year trend yields for the top 18 corn producing states and the U.S. are plotted vs. percent deviation of the 2019 vs. the 2018 yield, and also the percent deviation of 9/15/19 crop rating from the 9/16/18 crop rating.

10-state objective corn plant population in plants per acre vs. the implied ear weight in pounds per ear

Percent above or below the average June-August total precipitation this past summer vs. the difference in degrees Fahrenheit from the average 1950-2019 June-August temperature

U.S. share of the three largest commodities -- corn, soybeans and wheat -- exported by volume.

August price action of December corn, November soybeans and December Kansas City wheat in dollars per bushel since 1995.

China leads soybean world sales.

China Soybean World Share Analysis

End of August corn conditions vs. the percent that the final U.S. corn yield deviated from the 30-year trend.

Using a simple regression of end of July U.S. crop ratings and the percent that the national yield deviated from the 30-year trend comes up with a figure close to the USDA number of 169.5 bushels per acre.

End of July soybean crop conditions for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. from 1986 to 2019

Soybean conditions and percent of beans setting pods as of 7/28

U.S. corn crop rating and percent of crop silking as of July 21 vs percent final U.S. corn yield deviated from the 1986-2018 trend