Fundamentally Speaking

Using a simple regression of end of July U.S. crop ratings and the percent that the national yield deviated from the 30-year trend comes up with a figure close to the USDA number of 169.5 bushels per acre.

End of July soybean crop conditions for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. from 1986 to 2019

Soybean conditions and percent of beans setting pods as of 7/28

U.S. corn crop rating and percent of crop silking as of July 21 vs percent final U.S. corn yield deviated from the 1986-2018 trend

Amount of moisture the top 21 corn and soybean producing states received the first half of calendar year

Cumulative export sales and shipments of U.S. wheat as of the second week of July from the start of the marketing year June 1 vs. sales and shipments as a percent of the July WASDE export projection

Sales and exports as a % of July WASDE export projection lowest in 14 years; U.S. soybean sales as % of world trade at 25-year low

Amount of new crop U.S. corn sales on the books as of the first week in July for the marketing year starting September 1

Days after May 1 that 50% of the U.S. soybean crop has emerged, 50% of the U.S. soybean crop is blooming and 50% of the crop is dropping leaves

Initial USDA weekly crop ratings for soybeans compared to the percent that final U.S. soybean yield deviated from the 25-year trend

Change in planted acreage for U.S. corn and soybeans from the end of March Prospective Plantings report to the June Acreage numbers vs. percent of corn planted by May 19 and the percent of the nation's soybean crop seeded two weeks later on June 2.

End of May Palmer Drought Severity indices for the end of May 1993 and end of May 2019 for the top 21 corn and soybean producing states

Cumulative precipitation for the first five months of the year for the top 21 corn and soybean growing states

Days after May 1 that 50% of the U.S. corn crop has emerged, the number of days after May 1 that 50% of the U.S. corn crop is in the silking stage and the number of days after May 1 that 50% of the crop is mature.

Percent of the Illinois corn crop planted by May 26 going back over 40 years to 1979, percent change in planted acreage from the March intentions to the final crop production report and the percent that final yields deviated from the 40 year (1979-2018) trend

Updates of 2019/20 ending stocks calculations posted before based on a matrix of planted acreage in millions and yields in bushels per acre.

Percent of U.S. spring wheat crop planted by May 19 going back to 1981, percent that the final yield deviated from the 1981-2018 trend along with the percent that final plantings deviated from the farmer intention figures given at the end of March

History of U.S. soybean plantings as of May 19 vs. % deviation from 1980-2018 yield and % change in planted acreage from end of March intentions report to final production numbers

percent of the U.S. corn crop planted by May 19 going back to 1980, the percent that the final yield deviated from the 1980-2018 trend along with the percent that final plantings deviated from the farmer intention futures given at the end of March.

Initial export projection made by USDA for the new marketing year given in the May WASDE report along with what final exports were & new crop wheat sales already on the books as of the first week in May as a percent of that May WASDE export projection