Technically Speaking

October natural gas ended up 3.9 cents at $2.644 per million Btus in the week ending September 15, 2023, staying within a narrow, sideways trading range for the past three months. The U.S. became a net exporter of natural gas in 2017 and saw a record level of exports in the first half of 2023, but even so, U.S. natural gas supplies are up 16% from a year ago and will be starting the fourth quarter above the five-year average. Technically speaking, October natural gas is holding in a sideways range with resistance keeping prices below $3.00 for nearly six months. Volatility has narrowed dramatically and so far, there is no sign of prices being pressured to move in either direction.

Spot average rack prices of U.S. propane ended up 4.19 cents at 90.53 cents per gallon in the week ending September 15, 2023, the highest close in over four months. Friday's close was also up over 25 cents from the low of late June, a significant change in trend as the winter season approaches. In the Midwest, propane supplies are up 17% from a year ago, and dry conditions in the Midwest are keeping a lid on expectations that much propane will be needed to dry crops after harvest. Nevertheless, the uptrend in propane prices does indicate some concern about securing supplies ahead of winter. As long as prices trade above the 100-day average at 77.30 cents, the trend remains up.

**

The comments above are for educational purposes only and are not meant as specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of commodities, futures or options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @ToddHultman1

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.